Lowest temperature in Philadelphia on Jul 10, 2026?

On Kalshi, this market is priced through a continuous order-book mechanism where traders submit bids and asks for each temperature outcome. On Kalshi, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. The price of any outcome reflects the marginal probability traders assign to it, with higher prices indicating greater confidence. As new information arrives—weather models update, historical patterns emerge, or seasonal trends shift—traders adjust their positions, moving prices in real time. This dynamic pricing ensures the market continuously incorporates fresh signals about the lowest temperature expected on July 10, 2026.

This market resolves around Jul 11, 2026, once July 10, 2026 has passed and the day's lowest temperature can be verified. The outcome is determined by comparing actual recorded temperatures against the outcome ranges traders have wagered on, with results confirmed through credible public reporting. Traders holding shares in the correct outcome receive their payout, while incorrect positions expire worthless. The resolution process is straightforward: the event occurs, the data is published, and payouts follow automatically based on which outcome bracket the verified temperature falls into.

Several factors could shift odds in this market over the coming months. Updated seasonal forecasts and long-range weather models may suggest warmer or cooler conditions for early July 2026. Historical temperature patterns for Philadelphia in mid-summer, combined with climate trends, could influence trader positioning. Major atmospheric events—such as shifts in jet stream patterns or the development of heat domes—would likely trigger repricing. Additionally, as July 10 approaches, short-range forecasts become more reliable, typically causing the market to converge toward the meteorologically most probable outcome and narrowing the range of plausible temperatures.