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Lowest temperature in Paris on May 30?
polymarket

Lowest temperature in Paris on May 30?

Volume:
$12,505

20°C

 - Polymarket

20°C - Polymarket

1W

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

Hover marker for details

Vol.

·

Resolved May 31, 2026

Closed: May 30, 8:00 AM EST

polymarket

Polymarket

View
Outcome
Trade
Chance %
Price
Spread
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
polymarket

20°C

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
0.1¢
N/A
$4,002
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
polymarket

21°C

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$1,439
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

23°C or higher

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$1,342
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

19°C

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$1,181
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

22°C

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$901
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

18°C

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$717
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

16°C

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$711
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

15°C

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$635
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

17°C

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$567
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

14°C

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$514
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

13°C or below

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$497
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
Total markets: 11

Intro

This market tracks the lowest temperature recorded in Paris on May 30, 2026, measured at the Paris-Le Bourget Airport Station. On Polymarket, the leading outcome—a low of 20°C—stands at 26.5%, while a low of 19°C holds 22.0% probability. Resolution will be determined by historical temperature data from Weather Underground. Watch the actual temperature reading on May 30, 2026, as the overnight low will directly determine which outcome bracket resolves correctly.

Frequently asked questions

The dashboard tracks real-time odds and trading activity for the lowest temperature outcome in Paris on May 30 on Polymarket. It displays the current probability of the leading outcome, 24-hour volume of $1,822, and historical price movements. Users can monitor how market participants are pricing different temperature thresholds as the event date approaches, providing a live snapshot of collective forecasting sentiment on this specific weather event.

Prediction market odds reflect real-money consensus from traders betting on Paris's lowest temperature on May 30, whereas meteorological analyst forecasts rely on numerical weather models and historical climate data. Markets often incorporate broader information sets and update dynamically as new weather data emerges. Comparing the current market probability to official forecasts from Météo-France or similar services can reveal whether traders are pricing in more optimistic or pessimistic temperature scenarios than professional meteorologists.

Major weather pattern shifts, seasonal anomalies, and updated long-range forecasts from meteorological agencies can significantly move odds. Atmospheric circulation changes, jet stream positioning, and high-pressure or low-pressure system development over Europe will influence Paris's May 30 minimum temperature. Climate indices like the North Atlantic Oscillation and soil moisture conditions also matter. As May approaches, medium-range forecasts become more reliable, typically causing sharper price movements when they diverge from earlier expectations.