Lowest temperature in Paris on June 3?

On Polymarket, the lowest temperature in Paris on June 3 is priced through a set of binary or range-based outcome contracts, each representing a specific temperature threshold or band. On Polymarket, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. Traders buy and sell shares in each outcome, and the market price of each contract reflects the collective probability assigned by participants. Prices typically range from near zero to near one dollar, with the sum of all outcome prices equaling one dollar. As new information emerges—such as updated seasonal forecasts or atmospheric patterns—traders adjust positions, moving prices to reflect changing expectations about the final temperature reading.

The market resolves on Jun 3, 2026, after the lowest temperature in Paris on June 3 has been recorded and verified. Resolution depends on the official temperature data reported for that date. The outcome is determined by the actual minimum temperature reading from the designated meteorological station or official source specified in the market rules. Once the data is confirmed and published, the winning outcome is settled and traders receive payouts based on their positions in the correct temperature range or threshold.

Several factors could shift market odds before June 3. Major weather pattern changes—such as the arrival of a cold front, high-pressure system, or unusual jet-stream positioning—will influence trader expectations. Updated seasonal forecasts from meteorological agencies and real-time atmospheric model runs typically move prices as new data becomes available. Broader climate anomalies, such as persistent heat waves or cold spells across Europe, may also reshape sentiment. As the event date approaches, short-range forecasts become more reliable and precise, often triggering sharp repricing. Traders continuously incorporate new meteorological information to adjust their positions.