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Lowest temperature in Paris on July 9?
polymarket

Lowest temperature in Paris on July 9?

Volume:
$25,370

21°C

 - Polymarket

21°C - Polymarket

1W

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

Hover marker for details

Vol.

·

Resolved Jul 9, 2026

Closed: Jul 9, 8:00 AM EST

polymarket

Polymarket

View
Outcome
Trade
Chance %
Price
Spread
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
polymarket

21°C

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
0.1¢
N/A
$3,498
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
polymarket

20°C

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$5,656
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

22°C

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$2,950
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

25°C

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$2,339
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

27°C

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$2,117
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

24°C

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$1,999
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

28°C or higher

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$1,837
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

26°C

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$1,427
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

18°C or below

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$1,223
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

23°C

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$1,180
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

19°C

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$1,144
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
Total markets: 11

Description

This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the Paris-Le Bourget Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 9 Jul '26. The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Paris-Le Bourget Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/fr/bonneuil-en-france/LFPB. To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C. This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source. The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.

Polymarket

This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the Paris-Le Bourget Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 9 Jul '26. The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Paris-Le Bourget Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/fr/bonneuil-en-france/LFPB. To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C. This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source. The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.

Frequently asked questions

The Paris temperature market dashboard on Polymarket tracks real-time odds and historical price movements for the lowest temperature in Paris on July 9. Traders buy and sell shares representing different temperature ranges, and the dashboard displays current probabilities, 24-hour volume activity, and cumulative trading interest. This live data reflects collective market sentiment on whether temperatures will fall within specific bands, updated continuously as new trades execute. The interface lets you monitor how sentiment shifts as the event date approaches.

Prediction market odds often diverge from traditional weather forecasts because they incorporate real-time trader behavior and incentives. While meteorologists publish point estimates and confidence intervals based on atmospheric models, this market aggregates the financial commitments of participants betting on actual outcomes. Traders may price in tail risks or consensus shifts faster than official forecasts update. Comparing the implied probability here to major weather services' published predictions can reveal where the crowd sees upside or downside risk relative to expert models.

This market resolves around Jul 9, 2026, once the lowest temperature recorded in Paris on July 9 is verifiable from credible public sources. The outcome is determined by the actual minimum temperature reading on that date, confirmed through established meteorological records. Until that point, prices will fluctuate based on forecasts, model updates, and trader positioning. Resolution is automatic once the data is finalized and the winning outcome range is locked in.

Major weather model updates, seasonal pattern shifts, and atmospheric pressure changes will likely drive significant price moves. Unexpected cold fronts, heat waves, or anomalous jet stream behavior could reshape trader expectations. Real-time temperature readings in the days leading up to July 9 will anchor sentiment more tightly. Media coverage of extreme weather events, climate patterns, or forecaster consensus shifts can also trigger rapid repricing. Early morning conditions on the day itself may spark final volatility as traders react to live data.