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Lowest temperature in Paris on July 8?
polymarket

Lowest temperature in Paris on July 8?

Volume:
$33,182

18°C

 - Polymarket

18°C - Polymarket

1W

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

Hover marker for details

Vol.

·

Resolved Jul 8, 2026

Closed: Jul 8, 8:00 AM EST

polymarket

Polymarket

View
Outcome
Trade
Chance %
Price
Spread
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
polymarket

18°C

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
0.1¢
N/A
$4,590
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
polymarket

17°C

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$5,270
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

24°C

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$3,625
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

25°C or higher

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$3,105
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

19°C

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$3,030
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

22°C

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$2,952
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

20°C

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$2,926
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

21°C

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$2,374
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

16°C

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$2,260
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

15°C or below

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$1,643
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

23°C

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$1,405
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
Total markets: 11

Description

This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the Paris-Le Bourget Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 8 Jul '26. The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Paris-Le Bourget Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/fr/bonneuil-en-france/LFPB. To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C. This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source. The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.

Polymarket

This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the Paris-Le Bourget Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 8 Jul '26. The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Paris-Le Bourget Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/fr/bonneuil-en-france/LFPB. To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C. This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source. The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.

Frequently asked questions

The Paris temperature prediction market dashboard on Polymarket tracks real-time odds and historical price movements for the lowest temperature expected in Paris on July 8. Traders buy and sell shares representing different temperature ranges, with prices reflecting the collective forecast of market participants. The interface displays current implied probabilities for each outcome bracket, 24-hour trading volume, and a price history chart so you can monitor how sentiment shifts as new weather data emerges.

Prediction market odds often diverge from traditional meteorological forecasts because they incorporate real-time trader behavior, media attention, and emerging data. While weather analysts rely on numerical models and historical patterns, this market aggregates the financial incentives of thousands of participants betting on the actual outcome. Comparing the implied probability here to official forecasts from services like Météo-France can reveal whether traders are pricing in more or less downside risk than experts expect, making the market a useful cross-check on consensus views.

On Polymarket, traders set prices by buying and selling outcome shares in an automated market maker (AMM) pool. On Polymarket, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. Each temperature bracket has its own contract, and the cost to buy a share reflects the current probability assigned by the pool. As traders accumulate positions, prices shift to rebalance supply and demand, ensuring the market continuously reprices based on new information and shifting expectations about July 8's low temperature in Paris.

This market resolves around Jul 8, 2026, once July 8 has passed and the lowest temperature recorded in Paris that day is confirmed. The outcome is verified against credible public sources to determine which temperature bracket was correct. Traders holding shares in the winning bracket receive their payout, while losing positions expire worthless. Resolution typically occurs within hours of the market end time, once official temperature data becomes available.

Major weather pattern shifts, updated seasonal forecasts, and real-time atmospheric data releases can significantly move this market. Heat waves, cold fronts, or unusual jet stream behavior reported by meteorologists will trigger repricing as traders adjust their bets. Media coverage of extreme weather events, changes to long-range models, and even historical temperature records for July 8 in Paris may influence positioning. Close to resolution, intraday weather updates and satellite imagery become the primary drivers of last-minute trading activity.