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Lowest temperature in Paris on July 4?
polymarket

Lowest temperature in Paris on July 4?

Volume:
$55,288

13°C

 - Polymarket

13°C - Polymarket

1W

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

Hover marker for details

Vol.

·

Resolved Jul 4, 2026

Closed: Jul 4, 8:00 AM EST

polymarket

Polymarket

View
Outcome
Trade
Chance %
Price
Spread
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
polymarket

13°C

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
0.1¢
N/A
$16,075
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
polymarket

17°C

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$5,731
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

16°C

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$5,537
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

21°C or higher

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$4,410
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

18°C

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$4,091
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

19°C

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$3,909
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

12°C

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$3,680
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

14°C

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$3,360
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

20°C

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$3,292
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

15°C

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$3,269
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

11°C or below

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$1,935
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
Total markets: 11

Description

This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the Paris-Le Bourget Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 4 Jul '26. The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Paris-Le Bourget Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/fr/bonneuil-en-france/LFPB. To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C. This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source. The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.

Polymarket

This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the Paris-Le Bourget Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 4 Jul '26. The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Paris-Le Bourget Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/fr/bonneuil-en-france/LFPB. To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C. This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source. The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.

Frequently asked questions

The dashboard for the Paris July 4 temperature market on Polymarket displays real-time odds, historical price movements, and trading activity for this weather prediction contract. Traders are pricing their expectations about whether the lowest temperature in Paris on July 4 will reach 21°C or higher. The interface shows current market probability, 24-hour volume of $27,559, and cumulative trading interest, allowing participants to monitor how sentiment shifts as the event date approaches and new weather data emerges.

Prediction market odds reflect real-money bets from traders worldwide, often incorporating meteorological forecasts, historical climate patterns, and emerging weather models. Unlike traditional analyst consensus, this market aggregates dispersed information through price discovery. Traders betting on whether the lowest temperature will be 21°C or higher are effectively making a probabilistic judgment that may align with or diverge from published forecasts depending on data freshness, model uncertainty, and market participant expertise in seasonal European weather patterns.

This market resolves around Jul 4, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. The resolution hinges on whether the lowest temperature recorded in Paris on July 4 meets or exceeds 21°C. Once official meteorological data is published and verified, the market will settle accordingly, paying out traders who correctly predicted the temperature threshold.

Major weather pattern shifts, updated seasonal forecasts, and anomalous atmospheric conditions in Western Europe could significantly influence trading. Heat waves, cold fronts, or unexpected jet stream behavior reported by meteorological agencies may prompt traders to reassess their positions. Additionally, historical temperature records for early July in Paris and real-time weather model updates closer to the event date will likely drive volatility. Market participants typically react to official forecast revisions and emerging climate data that affect confidence in the 21°C threshold.