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Lowest temperature in Paris on July 3?
polymarket

Lowest temperature in Paris on July 3?

Volume:
$32,742

15°C

 - Polymarket

15°C - Polymarket

1W

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

Hover marker for details

Vol.

·

Resolved Jul 3, 2026

Closed: Jul 3, 8:00 AM EST

polymarket

Polymarket

View
Outcome
Trade
Chance %
Price
Spread
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
polymarket

15°C

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
0.1¢
N/A
$4,069
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
polymarket

14°C

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$6,005
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

13°C

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$5,786
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

12°C

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$3,222
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

16°C

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$2,691
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

21°C or higher

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$2,412
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

17°C

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$2,367
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

11°C or below

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$1,796
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

18°C

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$1,785
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

20°C

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$1,384
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

19°C

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$1,226
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
Total markets: 11

Description

This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the Paris-Le Bourget Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 3 Jul '26. The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Paris-Le Bourget Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/fr/bonneuil-en-france/LFPB. To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C. This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source. The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.

Polymarket

This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the Paris-Le Bourget Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 3 Jul '26. The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Paris-Le Bourget Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/fr/bonneuil-en-france/LFPB. To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C. This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source. The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.

Frequently asked questions

Prediction market odds often diverge from traditional weather forecasts because they incorporate real-time trader sentiment and incentivize accuracy through financial stakes. While meteorologists rely on atmospheric models and historical data, this market aggregates dispersed information from participants who profit only if their predictions prove correct. Comparing the implied probability here to consensus forecasts from major weather services can reveal where the crowd expects conditions to deviate from model expectations or where uncertainty remains high.

On Polymarket, traders set prices through an automated market maker that adjusts odds based on order flow and liquidity. On Polymarket, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. Each outcome—such as whether the lowest temperature will be 14°C—is represented as a tradable contract with a price between 0 and 1, where 1 represents certainty. As traders buy or sell contracts, the price shifts to reflect changing beliefs about the likelihood of that specific temperature outcome occurring on July 3.

This market resolves around Jul 3, 2026, once July 3 has passed and the lowest temperature recorded in Paris that day is confirmed. The outcome is verified against credible public sources documenting the actual minimum temperature. Traders holding shares in the correct outcome receive their payout, while incorrect positions expire worthless. The resolution hinges entirely on the factual meteorological record for that specific date.

Major weather pattern shifts, seasonal forecasts, and updated atmospheric models will influence trader positioning in the weeks leading up to July 3. Unexpected heat waves or cold fronts affecting Western Europe could trigger sharp repricing. Real-time weather alerts, changes in long-range forecasts, and historical temperature comparisons for that date in Paris may also drive trading activity. As the event date approaches, intraday weather updates and final model consensus will likely create volatility in this market.