Lowest temperature in Paris on July 11?

Prediction market odds represent a real-money consensus from traders with skin in the game, whereas traditional analyst forecasts rely on meteorological models and expert judgment. This market aggregates dispersed information and financial incentives into a single probability, often capturing nuances that static forecasts miss. Traders continuously update their positions based on new weather data, satellite imagery, and seasonal patterns, making the odds dynamic and responsive. Comparing this market's implied probability to official weather service predictions can reveal where the crowd sees value or risk that traditional forecasters may have overlooked.

On Polymarket, traders set the odds by buying and selling shares of each temperature outcome, with the market price determined by supply and demand. On Polymarket, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. Each share represents a claim on a specific temperature range, and the current price reflects the probability the market assigns to that outcome occurring. As new information arrives—updated weather models, historical comparisons, or seasonal data—traders adjust their positions, moving prices higher or lower. The top outcome currently reflects market sentiment, and you can trade at any time before resolution to profit from price movements or hedge your exposure.

This market resolves around Jul 11, 2026, once the lowest temperature recorded in Paris on July 11 is verifiable from credible public sources. The outcome is determined by comparing the actual low temperature against the prediction ranges offered in the market. Traders holding shares in the correct outcome receive their payout, while incorrect positions expire worthless. Resolution typically occurs within hours of the close of the trading day, once official meteorological data is published and confirmed.

Major weather pattern shifts, updated seasonal forecasts, and real-time atmospheric data will drive price movement in this market. Tropical systems, heat waves, or cold fronts affecting Western Europe could significantly alter expectations for Paris's low temperature. Historical analogues—similar dates or weather setups from past years—often influence trader positioning. Additionally, official weather service updates and satellite imagery released in the days leading up to July 11 will prompt rapid repricing. Any unexpected climate anomalies or sudden model consensus changes will likely trigger sharp trading activity as participants reassess their positions.