TOTAL VOLUME:
$134.2b
24H VOL:
$134,145,987
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,388,728,490
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,441,166,947
406,422
Markets across
30,383
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
2,688
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
39%
VS.
Kalshi:
61%
Closed: May 30, 2:00 AM EST
Kalshi
This market tracks whether the overnight low temperature in Oklahoma City will exceed 65 degrees Fahrenheit on May 29, 2026. On Kalshi, the probability that the minimum temperature will be above 65° stands at 42.0%, while the probability it falls between 64–65° is 40.0%. Resolution will be determined by the National Weather Service's Climatological Report (Daily) for Oklahoma City. Watch the National Weather Service's official temperature recording for May 29, 2026, which will settle the market the following day.
On Kalshi, the lowest temperature for Oklahoma City on May 29, 2026, is priced as binary or range-based contracts reflecting specific temperature thresholds. On Kalshi, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. Traders buy or sell shares at prices between 0 and 100 cents, with the price representing the implied probability of that outcome occurring. As new weather data, seasonal forecasts, and real-time conditions emerge, contract prices adjust to reflect updated trader sentiment. Volume and liquidity on Kalshi determine how easily you can enter or exit positions at competitive prices near resolution on May 30, 2026.
The market resolves on May 30, 2026, after the lowest temperature for Oklahoma City on May 29, 2026, has been recorded. The outcome is determined by official temperature data for that specific date and location. Once the day concludes and the final low is confirmed, the contract settles based on which temperature range or threshold was actually reached. Traders holding the winning outcome receive their payout, while those on the losing side forfeit their stake. Resolution is typically finalized within hours of the market end time.
Major weather pattern shifts, seasonal climate anomalies, and updated long-range forecasts from meteorological agencies will influence odds as May 2026 approaches. Cold fronts, high-pressure systems, and jet-stream positioning over the central United States can dramatically alter expected lows in Oklahoma City. Historical May temperatures, El Niño or La Niña conditions, and soil moisture levels also shape trader expectations. As the date draws closer, medium-range forecasts become more reliable, typically causing sharper price movements. Real-time atmospheric data and any unusual weather events in late May will drive final market adjustments before resolution.