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Lowest temperature in NYC on June 27?
kalshi
polymarket

Lowest temperature in NYC on June 27?

Volume:
$86,917

70-71°F

 - Polymarket

70-71°F - Polymarket

1W

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

Hover marker for details

Vol.

·

Resolved Jun 28, 2026

Closed: Jun 27, 8:00 AM EST

polymarket

Polymarket

View
Outcome
Trade
Chance %
Price
Spread
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
polymarket

70-71°F

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
0.1¢
N/A
$16,869
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
kalshi

66° to 67°

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$3,203
N/A
N/A
$2,310
Settled
Yes
kalshi

68° to 69°

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$10,303
N/A
N/A
$8,511
Settled
No
polymarket

68-69°F

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$9,743
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

72-73°F

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$8,217
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

66-67°F

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$5,377
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
kalshi

64° to 65°

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$5,233
N/A
N/A
$2,769
Settled
No
kalshi

70° or above

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$5,020
N/A
N/A
$2,462
Settled
No
polymarket

76-77°F

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$4,411
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

64-65°F

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$3,765
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

78-79°F

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$3,067
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

63°F or below

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$2,593
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

80-81°F

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$2,223
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
kalshi

62° to 63°

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$2,185
N/A
N/A
$2,104
Settled
No
polymarket

74-75°F

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$1,971
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
kalshi

61° or below

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$1,395
N/A
N/A
$1,389
Settled
No
polymarket

82°F or higher

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$1,342
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
Total markets: 17

Description

This event group asks what the lowest temperature in New York City will be on June 27, 2026. Kalshi frames this as a yes/no resolution across six temperature ranges, while Polymarket offers multiple binary markets for specific temperature bands. Both platforms rely on official weather data but differ in source (NWS vs. Wunderground) and measurement precision.

PredictionHero - Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA)

Divergence Detected

Issue: Kalshi contains a logical contradiction where all six conditions collectively cover every possible temperature outcome, making the market unresolvable as stated. Additionally, Kalshi references June 26, 2026, while the event explicitly asks about June 27, 2026. Polymarket uses a different data source (Wunderground vs. NWS) and measurement station (LaGuardia Airport vs. unspecified NYC location).Hero tip: Do not trade Kalshi markets in this group. The resolution logic is internally contradictory—every possible temperature outcome triggers a Yes resolution. Polymarket markets are logically sound but depend on Wunderground's LaGuardia Airport Station data. Confirm this station is your preferred NYC weather reference before committing capital. Monitor for temperature revisions until June 28 data is published.

Critical divergence points:

  • Kalshi: All six conditions (less than 62°F, 62-63°F, 64-65°F, 66-67°F, 68-69°F, greater than 69°F) resolve to Yes. This covers 100% of possible temperature outcomes, making the market logically incoherent. Additionally, conditions reference June 26, 2026, not June 27, 2026 as stated in the event group title. Key quote: 'If the minimum temperature recorded at New York City for Jun 26, 2026, is [any range], then the market resolves to Yes.'
  • Polymarket: Thirteen separate binary markets covering temperature ranges from 63°F or below through 82°F or higher, using Wunderground LaGuardia Airport Station data for June 27, 2026, measured to whole degrees Fahrenheit. Exactly one market will resolve Yes based on the actual recorded low. Key quote: 'This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the LaGuardia Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 27 Jun '26.'
Our PredictionHero Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA) are there to help users identify potential differences across platforms. They do not replace or supersede the official rules and description of any prediction market. Users are solely responsible for reviewing and understanding the applicable rules and resolution criteria before placing any trade or bet. If you notice a potential inconsistency, discrepancy, or error in an alert, please report it to our team so we can review and improve the accuracy of our data.

Polymarket

This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the LaGuardia Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 27 Jun '26. The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the LaGuardia Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/ny/new-york-city/KLGA. To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C. This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source. The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.

Kalshi

Resolution is based on the minimum temperature recorded at Central Park in New York City on June 26, 2026, as reported in the National Weather Service's Climatological Report (Daily). The temperature is divided into six ranges: 61°F or below, 62-63°F, 64-65°F, 66-67°F, 68-69°F, and 70°F or above. Official data must be obtained from the NWS Climate portal for the Central Park location using the Daily Climate Report. Traders should note that preliminary NWS data may be subject to rounding and conversion nuances, and the final official report should be used for resolution rather than preliminary estimates or third-party weather services.

Frequently asked questions

Prediction market prices often diverge from traditional weather forecasts because traders incorporate real-time data, model uncertainty, and tail-risk scenarios that meteorologists may weight differently. While the National Weather Service and private forecasters publish point estimates and confidence intervals, this market allows participants to express probabilistic views and hedge against forecast revisions. Markets tend to react faster to new satellite imagery, atmospheric pressure shifts, or model consensus changes, making them a complementary signal to conventional forecasts rather than a replacement for them.

Polymarket and Kalshi can show different implied probabilities for the same outcome because of liquidity, fee structure, participant mix, and how each venue defines the contract. Each platform attracts different trader demographics, uses distinct order-matching engines, and may frame temperature ranges slightly differently. Kalshi's top outcome focuses on a 64–65°F range, while Polymarket emphasizes 66–67°F, reflecting how outcome granularity shapes price discovery. Liquidity concentration, fee structures, and withdrawal policies also influence how quickly each venue responds to new weather data, creating temporary arbitrage opportunities for alert traders monitoring both books simultaneously.

Major weather pattern shifts, updated ensemble forecasts from the GFS or European models, and real-time atmospheric data will drive price movement leading up to June 27. Tropical systems, heat domes, or cold fronts approaching the Northeast could trigger sharp repricing. Additionally, historical temperature anomalies, seasonal trends, and overnight low forecasts issued by the National Weather Service in the days immediately before the event typically accelerate trading activity and volatility in this market.