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Lowest temperature in NYC on June 16?
kalshi
polymarket

Lowest temperature in NYC on June 16?

Volume:
$71,525

61° to 62°

 - Kalshi

61° to 62° - Kalshi

1W

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

Hover marker for details

Vol.

·

Resolved Jun 17, 2026

Closed: Jun 16, 1:00 AM EST

kalshi

Kalshi

View
Join Kalshi and score $25 for your first trade.
Outcome
Trade
Chance %
Price
Spread
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
kalshi

61° to 62°

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$10,440
N/A
N/A
$6,042
Settled
Yes
polymarket

60-61°F

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
0.1¢
N/A
$3,051
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
kalshi

65° to 66°

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$13,123
N/A
N/A
$8,687
Settled
No
kalshi

63° to 64°

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$10,441
N/A
N/A
$4,512
Settled
No
kalshi

60° or below

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$7,572
N/A
N/A
$3,692
Settled
No
polymarket

64-65°F

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$6,087
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
kalshi

69° or above

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$5,560
N/A
N/A
$5,271
Settled
No
polymarket

62-63°F

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$2,438
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
kalshi

67° to 68°

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$2,394
N/A
N/A
$2,300
Settled
No
polymarket

66-67°F

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$1,930
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

54-55°F

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$1,422
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

50-51°F

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$1,375
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

56-57°F

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$1,316
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

49°F or below

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$1,180
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

68°F or higher

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$1,172
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

58-59°F

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$1,113
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

52-53°F

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$912
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
Total markets: 17

Description

This event group asks what the lowest temperature in New York City will be on June 16, 2026. Kalshi frames this as a yes/no market on whether the minimum temperature falls into various ranges, while Polymarket offers a set of mutually exclusive temperature range buckets. Both platforms reference official weather data sources to determine the actual low temperature recorded on that date.

PredictionHero - Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA)

Divergence Detected

Issue: Critical date mismatch (June 15 vs June 16, 2026) combined with different weather data sources (NWS vs Wunderground LaGuardia). Kalshi's resolution logic is logically incoherent—all six conditions resolve to Yes, covering the entire temperature spectrum, making the market unresolvable as specified.Hero tip: This divergence is critical and unresolvable as currently specified. Before trading: (1) Contact both platforms to confirm the intended event date; (2) Request clarification on Kalshi's logic, as all outcomes resolve to Yes; (3) Verify that Polymarket's Wunderground source and Kalshi's NWS source will produce consistent temperature readings; (4) Consider whether these are intended to be separate markets or a single event with platform errors.

Critical divergence points:

  • Kalshi: References minimum temperature for June 15, 2026 (not June 16). All six conditions resolve to Yes: <61°F, 61-62°F, 63-64°F, 65-66°F, 67-68°F, >68°F. This covers all possible temperatures, making the market logically incoherent. Source: National Weather Service Climatological Report (Daily).
  • Polymarket: References lowest temperature for June 16, 2026 at LaGuardia Airport Station. Offers 11 mutually exclusive temperature range buckets (49°F or below through 68°F or higher). Exactly one will resolve to Yes. Source: Wunderground historical data, whole degrees Fahrenheit precision.
Our PredictionHero Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA) are there to help users identify potential differences across platforms. They do not replace or supersede the official rules and description of any prediction market. Users are solely responsible for reviewing and understanding the applicable rules and resolution criteria before placing any trade or bet. If you notice a potential inconsistency, discrepancy, or error in an alert, please report it to our team so we can review and improve the accuracy of our data.

Polymarket

This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the LaGuardia Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 16 Jun '26. The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the LaGuardia Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/ny/new-york-city/KLGA. To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C. This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source. The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.

Kalshi

Resolution is determined by the minimum temperature recorded at New York City on June 15, 2026, according to the National Weather Service's Climatological Report (Daily). The official data source is accessed via the NWS New York office website by navigating to the Observed Weather tab and selecting Central Park NY with Daily Climate Report. The recorded minimum temperature will fall into one of six ranges: 60°F or below, 61-62°F, 63-64°F, 65-66°F, 67-68°F, or 69°F or above, with each range corresponding to a distinct market outcome. Traders should note that preliminary NWS data may be subject to rounding and conversion nuances, and the final official NWS Climatological Report (Daily) value takes precedence over other weather sources.

Frequently asked questions

Prediction market prices distill collective trader expectations into live odds, often incorporating real-time data faster than traditional weather forecasts update. Unlike static analyst models, this market continuously reprices as new information arrives—satellite imagery, atmospheric pressure shifts, or seasonal patterns. Traders betting real capital tend to incorporate both official meteorological forecasts and their own analysis, creating a dynamic probability that can diverge from a single forecast model. Comparing this market's odds to the National Weather Service or other public forecasts reveals where the crowd sees edge or disagreement.

Polymarket and Kalshi can show different implied probabilities for the same outcome because of liquidity, fee structure, participant mix, and how each venue defines the contract. Each platform uses distinct order-book or automated market-maker mechanics, attracts different trader demographics, and may list slightly different outcome brackets for the same event. Polymarket and Kalshi may also have different liquidity depths, fee structures, or user bases with varying risk appetites. Even small differences in how outcomes are defined—such as rounding conventions or time-zone references for the temperature reading—can push prices apart. These gaps create arbitrage opportunities for traders monitoring both venues simultaneously.

Major weather pattern shifts—such as an unexpected cold front, high-pressure system, or tropical system—can dramatically reprrice this market. Updated seasonal forecasts, historical temperature anomalies, or shifts in the jet stream will influence trader positioning. Real-time atmospheric data released by meteorological agencies often triggers sharp moves. Additionally, large trader positions or sudden liquidity events on either platform can cause price swings independent of weather fundamentals, especially as June 16 approaches and uncertainty narrows.