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Lowest temperature in NYC on June 13?
kalshi
polymarket

Lowest temperature in NYC on June 13?

Volume:
$131,353

71° to 72°

 - Kalshi

71° to 72° - Kalshi

1W

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

Hover marker for details

Vol.

·

Resolved Jun 14, 2026

Closed: Jun 13, 1:00 AM EST

kalshi

Kalshi

View
Join Kalshi and score $25 for your first trade.
Outcome
Trade
Chance %
Price
Spread
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
kalshi

71° to 72°

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$17,866
N/A
N/A
$7,234
Settled
Yes
polymarket

72-73°F

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
0.1¢
N/A
$3,921
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
kalshi

73° to 74°

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$39,015
N/A
N/A
$23,017
Settled
No
kalshi

69° to 70°

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$14,188
N/A
N/A
$6,246
Settled
No
kalshi

75° to 76°

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$11,961
N/A
N/A
$11,298
Settled
No
kalshi

77° or above

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$11,169
N/A
N/A
$9,599
Settled
No
polymarket

64-65°F

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$10,819
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
kalshi

68° or below

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$6,092
N/A
N/A
$4,300
Settled
No
polymarket

68-69°F

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$2,542
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

66-67°F

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$2,511
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

76-77°F

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$2,329
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

78-79°F

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$1,656
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

82°F or higher

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$1,629
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

74-75°F

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$1,613
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

70-71°F

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$1,571
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

80-81°F

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$1,450
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

63°F or below

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$1,021
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
Total markets: 17

Description

This event group asks what the lowest temperature will be in New York City on June 13, 2026. Kalshi and Polymarket both reference official weather data sources (National Weather Service and Wunderground respectively) to determine which temperature range the daily low will fall into. The markets collectively cover temperature ranges from 63°F and below up to 82°F and higher.

PredictionHero - Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA)

Divergence Detected

Issue: Kalshi and Polymarket reference different calendar dates (June 12 vs June 13, 2026) and different data sources (National Weather Service Climatological Report vs Wunderground LaGuardia Airport Station). This creates fundamental ambiguity about which day's temperature is being measured and which official source will be authoritative.Hero tip: Before trading, contact both platforms to confirm: (1) whether the June 12 vs June 13 date difference is intentional or a typo, (2) whether Kalshi's NWS source covers the same geographic location and methodology as Polymarket's Wunderground/LaGuardia data, and (3) the exact resolution timeline and any revision windows. Do not assume cross-platform arbitrage is possible until these ambiguities are resolved.

Critical divergence points:

  • Kalshi: Resolves on minimum temperature for Jun 12, 2026 per National Weather Service Climatological Report (Daily). All six temperature ranges (below 69°F, 69-70°F, 71-72°F, 73-74°F, 75-76°F, above 76°F) resolve to Yes, suggesting this is a catch-all market or documentation error.
  • Polymarket: Resolves on lowest temperature at LaGuardia Airport Station on Jun 13, 2026 per Wunderground historical data. Thirteen mutually exclusive temperature buckets (63°F or below through 82°F or higher) with whole-degree precision. Revisions accepted until first datapoint of following date is published.
Our PredictionHero Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA) are there to help users identify potential differences across platforms. They do not replace or supersede the official rules and description of any prediction market. Users are solely responsible for reviewing and understanding the applicable rules and resolution criteria before placing any trade or bet. If you notice a potential inconsistency, discrepancy, or error in an alert, please report it to our team so we can review and improve the accuracy of our data.

Polymarket

This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the LaGuardia Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 13 Jun '26. The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the LaGuardia Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/ny/new-york-city/KLGA. To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C. This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source. The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.

Kalshi

Resolution is based on the minimum temperature recorded at New York City on June 12, 2026, as reported in the National Weather Service's Climatological Report (Daily) for Central Park, NY. The official data source is accessed via the NWS New York office website under the Observed Weather tab. Temperature bands are: 68°F or below, 69-70°F, 71-72°F, 73-74°F, 75-76°F, and 77°F or above. Traders should note that preliminary NWS data may be subject to rounding and conversion nuances, and the final official NWS Climatological Report (Daily) serves as the authoritative source, superseding other weather services.

Frequently asked questions

Prediction market prices often diverge from traditional weather forecasts because traders incorporate real-time data, historical patterns, and model uncertainty into their bets. While meteorologists publish point estimates and confidence intervals, market participants price in tail risks and consensus shifts dynamically. This market reflects crowdsourced probability estimates that can move faster than official forecasts when new atmospheric data becomes available, making it a complementary lens to conventional weather analysis.

Polymarket and Kalshi can show different implied probabilities for the same outcome because of liquidity, fee structure, participant mix, and how each venue defines the contract. Each platform attracts different trader demographics, liquidity pools, and risk appetites. Kalshi's binary structure encourages yes-or-no positioning on specific thresholds, while Polymarket's outcome granularity allows traders to bet on narrow temperature ranges. Differences in fee structures, user interface design, and market-making incentives can also cause temporary price spreads. These gaps typically narrow as arbitrageurs exploit mispricings, but they persist when liquidity is thin or when traders on one platform hold stronger convictions than the other.

Major weather model updates, tropical system forecasts, and upper-atmosphere pattern shifts can trigger sharp repricing in this market. Seasonal climate anomalies, sudden jet-stream changes, or revised ensemble guidance from the National Weather Service often spark trading surges. Real-time atmospheric observations in the 48 hours before June 13 typically drive the largest moves, as uncertainty collapses and traders adjust positions based on the most current data. Breaking news about blocking patterns or frontal systems can also shift odds significantly.