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Lowest temperature in NYC on July 10?
kalshi
polymarket

Lowest temperature in NYC on July 10?

Volume:
$74,350

76-77°F

 - Polymarket

76-77°F - Polymarket

1W

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

Hover marker for details

Vol.

·

Resolved Jul 11, 2026

Closed: Jul 10, 8:00 AM EST

polymarket

Polymarket

View
Outcome
Trade
Chance %
Price
Spread
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
polymarket

76-77°F

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
0.1¢
N/A
$13,471
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
kalshi

71° to 72°

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$6,324
N/A
N/A
$3,517
Settled
Yes
kalshi

73° or above

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$17,878
N/A
N/A
$17,652
Settled
No
polymarket

72-73°F

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$5,980
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

74-75°F

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$5,958
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
kalshi

69° to 70°

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$5,781
N/A
N/A
$2,507
Settled
No
kalshi

64° or below

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$3,924
N/A
N/A
$3,718
Settled
No
kalshi

67° to 68°

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$2,689
N/A
N/A
$1,527
Settled
No
polymarket

70-71°F

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$2,649
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

65°F or below

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$1,593
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

80-81°F

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$1,466
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

68-69°F

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$1,455
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

66-67°F

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$1,321
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
kalshi

65° to 66°

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$1,170
N/A
N/A
$956
Settled
No
polymarket

82-83°F

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$1,047
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

84°F or higher

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$974
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

78-79°F

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$671
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
Total markets: 17

Description

This event group tracks the lowest temperature recorded in New York City on July 10, 2026. Kalshi uses a yes/no binary structure covering all temperature outcomes, while Polymarket uses a tiered temperature range structure. Both markets reference official weather data but differ in measurement station, source platform, and resolution mechanics.

PredictionHero - Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA)

Divergence Detected

Issue: Kalshi and Polymarket use different official weather sources and measurement stations. Kalshi references National Weather Service Climatological Report for NYC; Polymarket specifies LaGuardia Airport Station via Wunderground. Additionally, Kalshi's resolution logic resolves all temperature outcomes to Yes, which is logically inconsistent with a binary market structure.Hero tip: Before trading, clarify whether Kalshi's all-Yes resolution is intentional or a data entry error. Compare historical temperature data between NWS citywide NYC and LaGuardia Airport Station to estimate divergence magnitude. Polymarket's tiered structure is more granular and resolvable; Kalshi's structure appears malformed.

Critical divergence points:

  • Kalshi: Uses National Weather Service Climatological Report (Daily) for NYC minimum temperature on July 9, 2026. All six conditions (less than 65°F, 65-66°F, 67-68°F, 69-70°F, 71-72°F, greater than 72°F) resolve to Yes, creating a tautological outcome regardless of actual temperature.
  • Polymarket: Uses Wunderground historical data for LaGuardia Airport Station (KLGA) minimum temperature on July 10, 2026. Offers 13 mutually exclusive temperature ranges (65°F or below through 84°F or higher) with whole-degree precision. Revision window closes at first datapoint of following date.
Our PredictionHero Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA) are there to help users identify potential differences across platforms. They do not replace or supersede the official rules and description of any prediction market. Users are solely responsible for reviewing and understanding the applicable rules and resolution criteria before placing any trade or bet. If you notice a potential inconsistency, discrepancy, or error in an alert, please report it to our team so we can review and improve the accuracy of our data.

Polymarket

This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the LaGuardia Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 10 Jul '26. The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the LaGuardia Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/ny/new-york-city/KLGA. To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C. This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source. The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.

Kalshi

Resolution is determined by the minimum temperature recorded at Central Park, NY on July 9, 2026, according to the National Weather Service's Climatological Report (Daily). The official data source is accessed through the NWS website by navigating to the Observed Weather tab and selecting Central Park NY with Daily Climate Report. The recorded minimum temperature will fall into one of six ranges: 64°F or below, 65-66°F, 67-68°F, 69-70°F, 71-72°F, or 73°F or above. Each range corresponds to a distinct market outcome. Traders should note that preliminary NWS reporting may be subject to rounding and conversion nuances, and the final official NWS Climatological Report (Daily) value takes precedence over other weather data sources such as AccuWeather or Google Weather.

Frequently asked questions

The NYC July 10 temperature market aggregates trader predictions across Polymarket and Kalshi, capturing real-time consensus on the lowest temperature expected in New York City on that date. Traders buy and sell shares tied to specific temperature ranges, with prices reflecting collective forecasts. This market reflects both professional meteorological models and crowd intelligence, offering a dynamic view of temperature expectations as new weather data emerges. The dashboard consolidates activity from multiple platforms, enabling you to compare odds and identify where the strongest conviction lies across the prediction market ecosystem.

Prediction market prices often diverge from traditional weather forecasts because traders incorporate real-time data, historical patterns, and risk premiums that meteorologists may weight differently. While the National Weather Service issues point estimates and confidence intervals, this market prices uncertainty through continuous trading. Traders betting on extreme outcomes can move odds faster than official forecasts update, especially as conditions shift. Comparing the two reveals whether the crowd is more bullish or bearish on heat than institutional forecasters, offering a complementary perspective on temperature risk.

Polymarket and Kalshi may show different odds for identical temperature outcomes due to variations in liquidity, user base composition, and trading mechanics. Polymarket and Kalshi can show different implied probabilities for the same outcome because of liquidity, fee structure, participant mix, and how each venue defines the contract. Each platform attracts traders with different risk tolerances and information sets, so prices can lag or lead depending on which platform processes new weather data first. Arbitrage opportunities sometimes emerge when one platform reprices faster than the other. Monitoring both venues helps you spot mispricings and understand where the broader market consensus is strongest.

Major weather pattern shifts, updated seasonal forecasts, and real-time atmospheric data releases can all trigger sharp repricing in this market. Tropical systems, heat domes, or unexpected cold fronts moving toward the Northeast will shift trader expectations significantly. Historical analogues—such as past July 10 temperatures or similar weather setups—often influence early positioning. As the date approaches, intraday weather updates and model consensus changes become the primary drivers, with the final 48 hours typically seeing the most volatile trading as conditions crystallize.