TOTAL VOLUME:
$54.3b
24H VOL:
$198,896,558
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,191,591,877
500,572
Markets across
13,691
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
1,797
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
4
Polymarket:
51%
VS.
Kalshi:
49%
Lowest temperature in NYC on April 15?
Description
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the LaGuardia Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 15 Apr '26. The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the LaGuardia Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/ny/new-york-city/KLGA. To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C. This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized. The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
PredictionHero - Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA)
Divergence Detected
Issue:
Kalshi resolves YES for every possible temperature outcome (all ranges from <61°F to >68°F map to YES), making the market logically unresolvable and creating a data integrity failure. Polymarket uses mutually exclusive temperature ranges with a single YES outcome, providing a valid binary resolution structure.Hero Tip:
Avoid Kalshi entirely — its resolution rules guarantee YES regardless of the actual temperature recorded, rendering the market meaningless. Trade only on Polymarket, where exactly one temperature range will resolve YES based on the recorded low at LaGuardia Airport.Critical Divergence Points:
- Kalshi: Outlier: All six resolution rules map to YES, covering every possible temperature outcome. Rules state 'resolves to Yes' for <61°F, 61-62°F, 63-64°F, 65-66°F, 67-68°F, and >68°F, leaving no outcome that resolves NO. This creates a logical contradiction where the market cannot fail.
- Polymarket: Distinct stance: Provides 10 mutually exclusive temperature ranges (59°F or below, 60-61°F, 62-63°F, 64-65°F, 66-67°F, 68-69°F, 70-71°F, 72-73°F, 74-75°F, 76-77°F, 78°F or higher), with exactly one resolving YES based on the lowest temperature recorded at LaGuardia Airport Station per Wunderground historical data, measured to whole degrees Fahrenheit.
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