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Lowest temperature in NYC on April 15?
kalshi
polymarket

Lowest temperature in NYC on April 15?

Volume:
$303,852

68-69°F

 - Polymarket

68-69°F - Polymarket

1W

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

Hover marker for details

Vol.

·

Resolved Apr 16, 2026

Closed: Apr 16, 8:00 AM EST

polymarket

Polymarket

View
Outcome
Trade
Chance %
Price
Spread
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
polymarket

68-69°F

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
—
N/A
$80,192
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
kalshi

67° to 68°

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
—
N/A
$6,688
N/A
N/A
$5,298
Settled
Yes
polymarket

66-67°F

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$8,330
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

78°F or higher

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$132,780
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

72-73°F

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$17,201
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

64-65°F

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$7,798
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
kalshi

65° to 66°

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$5,569
N/A
N/A
$4,728
Settled
No
polymarket

74-75°F

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$6,688
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
kalshi

69° or above

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$6,650
N/A
N/A
$5,470
Settled
No
polymarket

60-61°F

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$6,259
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
kalshi

61° to 62°

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$3,306
N/A
N/A
$2,172
Settled
No
polymarket

62-63°F

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$5,200
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
kalshi

63° to 64°

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$3,562
N/A
N/A
$2,435
Settled
No
polymarket

59°F or below

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$4,264
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
kalshi

60° or below

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$2,752
N/A
N/A
$2,483
Settled
No
polymarket

70-71°F

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$3,671
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

76-77°F

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$2,942
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
Total markets: 17

Description

This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the LaGuardia Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 15 Apr '26. The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the LaGuardia Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/ny/new-york-city/KLGA. To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C. This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized. The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.

PredictionHero - Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA)

Divergence Detected

Issue: Kalshi resolves YES for every possible temperature outcome (all ranges from <61°F to >68°F map to YES), making the market logically unresolvable and creating a data integrity failure. Polymarket uses mutually exclusive temperature ranges with a single YES outcome, providing a valid binary resolution structure.Hero tip: Avoid Kalshi entirely — its resolution rules guarantee YES regardless of the actual temperature recorded, rendering the market meaningless. Trade only on Polymarket, where exactly one temperature range will resolve YES based on the recorded low at LaGuardia Airport.

Critical divergence points:

  • Kalshi: Outlier: All six resolution rules map to YES, covering every possible temperature outcome. Rules state 'resolves to Yes' for <61°F, 61-62°F, 63-64°F, 65-66°F, 67-68°F, and >68°F, leaving no outcome that resolves NO. This creates a logical contradiction where the market cannot fail.
  • Polymarket: Distinct stance: Provides 10 mutually exclusive temperature ranges (59°F or below, 60-61°F, 62-63°F, 64-65°F, 66-67°F, 68-69°F, 70-71°F, 72-73°F, 74-75°F, 76-77°F, 78°F or higher), with exactly one resolving YES based on the lowest temperature recorded at LaGuardia Airport Station per Wunderground historical data, measured to whole degrees Fahrenheit.
Our PredictionHero Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA) are there to help users identify potential differences across platforms. They do not replace or supersede the official rules and description of any prediction market. Users are solely responsible for reviewing and understanding the applicable rules and resolution criteria before placing any trade or bet. If you notice a potential inconsistency, discrepancy, or error in an alert, please report it to our team so we can review and improve the accuracy of our data.