Lowest temperature in New York City on Jun 22, 2026?

Prediction market odds reflect real-money bets from traders who have financial incentive to forecast accurately, often diverging from traditional weather analyst consensus. While meteorologists rely on numerical models and historical patterns, this market incorporates trader conviction and incorporates new data continuously. Comparing the implied probability in this market to published forecasts from the National Weather Service or private forecasters can reveal where the crowd sees asymmetric risk. Markets tend to update faster than seasonal outlooks, making them a useful cross-check against conventional predictions.

On Kalshi, this market is priced through an order-book mechanism where traders buy and sell shares corresponding to each temperature outcome bracket. On Kalshi, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. Each outcome is mutually exclusive, and the sum of all outcome probabilities equals 100 percent. Prices move based on supply and demand; as traders accumulate positions in warmer or cooler ranges, the odds shift to reflect new information. The platform's matching engine ensures transparent price discovery and tight spreads during active trading hours.

This market resolves around Jun 23, 2026, once the lowest temperature recorded in New York City on June 22, 2026 is verified and confirmed. The outcome is determined by comparing the actual low temperature against the predefined outcome brackets offered in the market. Resolution occurs after the trading window closes and credible public reporting confirms the official temperature reading. Traders holding shares in the correct outcome bracket receive their payout automatically.

Major weather pattern shifts, updated seasonal forecasts, and real-time atmospheric data releases can all drive significant repricing in this market. El Niño or La Niña developments, jet stream positioning, and anomalies in upper-level pressure systems influence long-range temperature expectations. As June 2026 approaches, medium-range weather models become more reliable, typically triggering sharp moves in the final two weeks. Traders also react to historical analogs and any unusual climate events that suggest warmer or cooler conditions ahead.