Lowest temperature in New York City on Jun 20, 2026?

Prediction market odds represent aggregated trader beliefs and often diverge from traditional weather forecasts issued by meteorologists and climate analysts. While meteorologists rely on physics-based models and historical data, prediction markets incorporate real-time information, trader expertise, and financial incentives to be accurate. This market allows you to compare consensus odds against published forecasts from the National Weather Service or other official sources. Discrepancies can signal where the crowd sees value or where expert models may underestimate tail risks like unusual weather patterns.

On Kalshi, this market is priced through a continuous order-book mechanism where traders submit buy and sell orders at their chosen price points. On Kalshi, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. The market price reflects the last executed trade, and the spread between bid and ask prices indicates liquidity and consensus tightness. As new information emerges—seasonal forecasts, climate anomalies, or updated meteorological models—traders adjust their positions, moving prices up or down. Your entry and exit prices depend on available liquidity at your chosen strike or outcome bucket.

This market resolves around Jun 21, 2026, once the lowest temperature recorded in New York City on June 20, 2026 is verified and finalized. The outcome is confirmed against credible public sources such as official weather station data or recognized meteorological records. Until that date, traders can continue to buy and sell shares as new forecasts and real-world conditions emerge. Resolution typically occurs within hours or days after the event, once data is publicly available and validated.

Major climate patterns, seasonal forecasts, and long-range weather models can significantly shift odds in this market. El Niño or La Niña conditions, jet stream positioning, and Atlantic hurricane activity all influence summer temperatures in New York. Unexpected heat waves or cold snaps in preceding weeks may trigger rapid repricing as traders update their expectations. Additionally, any revisions to historical temperature records or changes in how official measurements are recorded could alter the baseline against which June 20 is evaluated. Real-time weather alerts and atmospheric anomalies closer to the event date typically drive the most volatile price movements.