Lowest temperature in New Orleans on Jun 6, 2026?

On Kalshi, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. On Kalshi, this weather event is priced as a binary or range-based contract reflecting the lowest temperature recorded in New Orleans on June 6, 2026. Traders buy and sell shares corresponding to different temperature thresholds or brackets, with prices reflecting the collective probability estimate. The contract price moves as new weather models, historical analogs, and seasonal data become available. Kalshi's order book and continuous pricing mechanism allow traders to enter and exit positions dynamically, with the market price serving as a real-time consensus on the likelihood of each temperature outcome.

The market resolves on Jun 7, 2026. Resolution is determined by the official lowest temperature recorded in New Orleans on June 6, 2026, as reported by the relevant meteorological authority. The specific data source and measurement methodology are established at market creation to ensure objective, verifiable settlement. Once the date passes and the low temperature is confirmed, the contract settles according to which outcome bracket or threshold the actual reading falls into, concluding all open positions.

Several factors can shift market pricing for this event. Updated seasonal climate forecasts and long-range weather models will influence trader expectations as June approaches. Historical temperature patterns for early June in New Orleans provide a baseline, but anomalies like La Niña or El Niño conditions can alter typical ranges. Major atmospheric patterns, such as high-pressure systems or tropical activity, may emerge in the weeks before the event. Additionally, any revisions to climate normals or unexpected shifts in regional weather patterns could prompt traders to adjust positions, moving the market price and implied probability.