Lowest temperature in New Orleans on Jun 2, 2026?

Prediction market odds on Kalshi reflect aggregated trader expectations and often incorporate meteorological forecasts from the National Weather Service and private weather models. Markets typically price in seasonal norms for early June in New Orleans, where low temperatures average in the mid-70s Fahrenheit. Comparing Kalshi odds to published analyst forecasts and historical climate data can reveal whether traders are pricing in unusual weather patterns or consensus expectations. Divergences may signal either market inefficiency or trader insight into emerging weather systems.

On Kalshi, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. On Kalshi, this event is priced as a binary or range-based contract reflecting the lowest temperature recorded in New Orleans during June 2, 2026. Traders buy and sell shares corresponding to temperature thresholds, with prices ranging from 0 to 100 cents per share. The market price reflects the collective probability assigned by traders to each outcome. As new weather data emerges and the event date approaches, prices adjust to reflect updated forecasts and changing trader sentiment about the likely low temperature.

The market resolves on Jun 3, 2026, after the close of trading and official temperature data collection for June 2, 2026. Resolution is determined by the lowest temperature recorded in New Orleans on that date according to the designated official weather source. Once the final temperature is confirmed and published, the market settles based on which outcome bracket or threshold the actual low temperature falls into. Traders holding shares in the correct outcome receive their payout.

Key catalysts include updated seasonal forecasts from the National Weather Service, tropical weather systems or frontal passages approaching the Gulf Coast, and historical climate anomalies signaling unusual heat or cool patterns. Real-time atmospheric pressure, sea-surface temperatures, and upper-level wind patterns can shift trader expectations significantly. As June 2, 2026 approaches, short-range forecasts become more precise, typically narrowing the range of expected lows. Major weather events weeks or days before the date—such as heat waves or cold fronts—will likely drive sharp price movements on Kalshi.