Lowest temperature in New Orleans on Jun 13, 2026?

Prediction market odds often diverge from traditional meteorological forecasts because they incorporate real-time trader positioning and risk appetite alongside historical weather models. While meteorologists publish seasonal and medium-range temperature outlooks, this market aggregates distributed bets from many participants, each weighing their own interpretation of climate patterns, atmospheric conditions, and historical June data for New Orleans. The odds reflect a crowd-sourced probability estimate that may lead or lag official forecasts, particularly as the event date approaches and new atmospheric data becomes available.

On Kalshi, this market is priced through an order-book mechanism where traders buy and sell shares corresponding to different temperature ranges. On Kalshi, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. Each outcome contract represents a specific low-temperature band, and the price of each contract reflects the collective probability assigned by active traders. As new information emerges—seasonal forecasts, climate indices, or real-time weather updates—traders adjust their positions, moving prices up or down. The spread between bid and ask prices narrows or widens depending on trading volume and conviction among participants.

This market resolves around Jun 14, 2026, after June 13, 2026 concludes. The outcome is determined by the verified lowest temperature recorded in New Orleans on that date, confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. Traders' positions settle based on which temperature range the actual low falls into, with payouts distributed accordingly to those who correctly predicted the outcome.

Several factors could shift odds in this market: seasonal climate forecasts updated by meteorological agencies, historical temperature patterns for early June in New Orleans, El Niño or La Niña conditions affecting Atlantic weather systems, and real-time atmospheric data as June 2026 approaches. Major weather events—such as tropical systems or heat domes forming weeks prior—can trigger repricing. Additionally, long-range ensemble models and official National Weather Service outlooks released closer to the date will likely drive significant trading activity and price movement as traders refine their probability estimates.