Lowest temperature in New Orleans on Jun 10, 2026?

Prediction market odds on Kalshi reflect real-money trader expectations and often incorporate meteorological forecasts, historical climate data, and seasonal patterns for New Orleans in June. Traditional weather analysts and climate models typically issue deterministic point forecasts or narrow ranges, whereas prediction markets aggregate diverse trader views into probabilistic odds. The market price may diverge from a single analyst forecast because traders weigh multiple scenarios, uncertainty, and longer-term climate trends. Comparing Kalshi odds to published National Weather Service or academic forecasts can reveal where the market sees additional risk or confidence relative to expert consensus.

On Kalshi, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. On Kalshi, the lowest temperature outcome is priced as a binary or range-based contract reflecting trader consensus on the exact minimum temperature New Orleans will experience on June 10, 2026. Traders buy and sell shares at prices between 0 and 100 cents, with the price representing the implied probability of that outcome occurring. As new meteorological data, seasonal forecasts, and real-time weather patterns emerge, the price adjusts to reflect updated market expectations. Kalshi's order book and continuous trading mechanism allow you to enter or exit positions at the prevailing market price.

The market resolves on Jun 11, 2026, after the close of June 10, 2026, in New Orleans. Resolution is determined by the official lowest temperature recorded for that calendar day. The outcome is typically sourced from authoritative weather stations or meteorological databases serving the New Orleans area. Once the final temperature data is confirmed and published, Kalshi settles all positions based on whether the actual low falls within the specified outcome range or matches the predicted threshold. Traders holding the correct outcome receive their payout.

Several factors can shift odds on Kalshi before resolution. Major weather pattern changes—such as the arrival of a cold front, tropical system, or high-pressure ridge—will significantly alter temperature expectations. Updated seasonal climate forecasts and long-range models from NOAA or other agencies can move the market as June approaches. Real-time atmospheric data, including upper-level wind patterns and soil moisture, influence overnight lows. Historical analogs and similar June weather events may also inform trader positioning. As the event date nears, short-range forecasts become more precise, typically narrowing the range of plausible outcomes and stabilizing the market price.