Lowest temperature in Minneapolis on Jun 4, 2026?

Prediction market odds on Kalshi reflect real-money trader expectations for Minneapolis's lowest temperature on June 4, 2026, and often diverge from traditional meteorological forecasts. While weather analysts rely on numerical models and historical climate data, prediction markets incorporate broader information including long-range climate patterns, seasonal anomalies, and trader conviction. Comparing the market's implied probability to consensus forecasts from the National Weather Service or other meteorological sources can reveal whether traders expect conditions warmer or colder than baseline predictions.

On Kalshi, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. On Kalshi, the lowest temperature in Minneapolis on June 4, 2026 is priced as a binary or range-based contract reflecting trader beliefs about the outcome. Prices move based on order flow, with higher prices indicating stronger conviction that a given temperature threshold will be breached. Traders buy and sell shares corresponding to specific temperature brackets, and the market price of each outcome directly represents the collective probability estimate at any given moment.

The market resolves on Jun 5, 2026. Resolution is determined by the actual lowest temperature recorded in Minneapolis on June 4, 2026. Official meteorological data sources establish the final outcome, and traders' positions settle based on whether the realized low temperature matches their predicted outcome. The specific measurement methodology and data source used for settlement are defined in the market's terms at contract creation.

Several factors could shift market odds for Minneapolis's June 4 low temperature. Major weather pattern changes, such as shifts in jet stream positioning or the development of high or low pressure systems, typically trigger repricing. Long-range climate forecasts, El Niño or La Niña updates, and seasonal trend reports can influence trader expectations. As June 4 approaches, short-range weather models become more reliable and often cause sharp price movements. Additionally, historical temperature records and anomalies for early June in Minneapolis may prompt traders to adjust positions based on climatological context.