Lowest temperature in Minneapolis on Jun 29, 2026?

On Kalshi, this market is priced through a continuous order-book mechanism where traders submit bids and asks for shares tied to specific temperature outcomes. On Kalshi, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. Each outcome—such as whether the low will fall within a given range—has its own contract, and the price of each reflects the probability traders assign to it. As new information emerges or sentiment shifts, prices adjust in real time, allowing you to enter or exit positions at market rates or place limit orders to trade at your preferred price.

This market resolves around Jun 30, 2026, once June 29, 2026 has passed and the day's weather data becomes available. The outcome is determined by the verified lowest temperature recorded in Minneapolis on that date, confirmed against credible public sources. Once the event is observable and reported, the platform will settle all positions based on which outcome bracket the actual temperature falls into, paying out traders who correctly predicted the range.

Several factors could shift odds in this market over the coming months. Major climate patterns—such as El Niño or La Niña transitions, polar vortex behavior, or seasonal jet stream positioning—often influence summer temperatures across the Upper Midwest. Additionally, updated long-range forecasts from NOAA or other meteorological agencies, historical temperature anomalies for late June, and broader climate trends could prompt traders to reassess their positions. As June 2026 approaches, near-term weather models will become more reliable and may trigger significant repricing of the outcome probabilities.