Lowest temperature in Minneapolis on Jun 21, 2026?

Prediction market odds reflect aggregated trader expectations and often incorporate meteorological forecasts from professional weather services. While meteorologists publish seasonal and short-range temperature predictions for the Minneapolis area, this market prices those forecasts in real time through continuous trading. Comparing the implied probability here to published analyst outlooks can reveal whether traders expect conditions warmer or colder than consensus—a useful signal of market sentiment diverging from traditional forecasting.

On Kalshi, this market is priced through a continuous order-book mechanism where traders buy and sell shares corresponding to different temperature ranges or outcomes. On Kalshi, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. Each outcome's price reflects the probability traders assign to that temperature band occurring on the specified date. As new weather data, seasonal patterns, or climate models become available, traders adjust their bids and offers, causing prices to move and the implied odds to shift accordingly.

This market resolves around Jun 22, 2026, after June 21, 2026 has passed and the lowest temperature for that day in Minneapolis can be verified. The outcome is confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting, typically from the National Weather Service or other authoritative meteorological records. Once the actual low temperature is recorded and published, the market settles according to which outcome range or bracket it falls into.

Major shifts in long-range weather models, seasonal climate forecasts, and atmospheric patterns will drive price movement in this market. El Niño or La Niña conditions, polar vortex behavior, and jet stream positioning all influence June temperatures in the Upper Midwest. Additionally, updated seasonal outlooks from NOAA or other climate centers, as well as real-time weather developments closer to June 2026, will prompt traders to reassess their positions and adjust odds accordingly.