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Lowest temperature in Minneapolis on Jun 14, 2026?
kalshi

Lowest temperature in Minneapolis on Jun 14, 2026?

Volume:
$6,074

54° or above

 - Kalshi

54° or above - Kalshi

1W

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Positive

Negative

Neutral

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Vol.

·

Resolved Jun 15, 2026

Closed: Jun 15, 2:00 AM EST

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Join Kalshi and score $25 for your first trade.
Outcome
Trade
Chance %
Price
Spread
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
kalshi

54° or above

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$3,591
N/A
N/A
$2,324
Settled
Yes
kalshi

52° to 53°

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$961
N/A
N/A
$842
Settled
No
kalshi

50° to 51°

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$503
N/A
N/A
$481
Settled
No
kalshi

46° to 47°

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$489
N/A
N/A
$477
Settled
No
kalshi

48° to 49°

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$308
N/A
N/A
$301
Settled
No
kalshi

45° or below

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$222
N/A
N/A
$222
Settled
No
Total markets: 6

Description

This event tracks the lowest temperature recorded in Minneapolis on June 14, 2026. The outcome will be determined by the official National Weather Service Climatological Report (Daily) for that date, with resolution based on which temperature range the recorded minimum falls into.

Kalshi

Resolution is determined by the minimum temperature recorded at Minneapolis on June 14, 2026, according to the National Weather Service's Climatological Report (Daily), accessed via the Minneapolis/St Paul, MN location on the NWS website. The official temperature data from this source is the sole determinant; preliminary NWS reporting and other weather services are not authoritative. Temperature measurements may be subject to rounding and conversion nuances in preliminary NWS data, so traders should exercise caution when interpreting such preliminary information. The recorded minimum temperature will be categorized into one of six ranges: 45°F or below, 46-47°F, 48-49°F, 50-51°F, 52-53°F, or 54°F and above, with each range corresponding to a distinct market outcome.

Frequently asked questions

On Kalshi, the Minneapolis temperature market dashboard tracks real-time odds and historical price movements for the lowest temperature prediction in Minneapolis on June 14, 2026. The interface displays current market sentiment through live pricing, allowing traders to monitor how odds shift as new weather data and seasonal forecasts emerge. You can also view cumulative trading volume of $6,074 to gauge overall market interest and liquidity in this contract.

Prediction market odds often diverge from traditional meteorological forecasts because traders incorporate real-time data, historical patterns, and forward-looking uncertainty differently than statistical models. While weather analysts publish deterministic low-temperature predictions based on atmospheric modeling, this market aggregates the collective judgment of many participants betting on specific temperature thresholds. Comparing the two reveals whether traders are pricing in more or less downside risk than official forecasts suggest for that date.

On Kalshi, this market is priced through an order-book mechanism where traders buy and sell contracts representing different temperature ranges or outcomes. On Kalshi, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. The bid-ask spread reflects the current consensus on the lowest temperature, with prices moving as new information arrives and trader conviction shifts. Higher prices indicate stronger market belief in warmer lows, while lower prices suggest traders expect colder conditions on June 14, 2026.

This market resolves around Jun 15, 2026, once June 14, 2026 has passed and the lowest temperature recorded in Minneapolis that day becomes verifiable. The outcome is confirmed against credible public weather reporting sources that document the actual low temperature. Traders' positions settle based on whether the final recorded temperature falls within or outside the outcome ranges they wagered on.

Major weather pattern shifts, seasonal climate anomalies, and updated long-range forecasts from meteorological agencies can significantly move this market. El Niño or La Niña conditions, Arctic air outbreaks, or unusual jet-stream positioning months before June could alter trader expectations. Additionally, historical temperature records for that date and broader climate trends in the upper Midwest may prompt repricing as resolution approaches and forecasts become more precise.