TOTAL VOLUME:

$134b

24H VOL:

$103,397,351

24H TRANSACTIONS:

2,388,728,490

OPEN INTEREST:

$1,410,176,180

399,592

Markets across

30,097

events

MATCHED EVENTS:

2,622

PLATFORM COVERAGE:

5

Polymarket:

39%

VS.

Kalshi:

61%

BETA
Dashboards
Insights
Indices
Tour
All
Trending
Breaking
New
Ending Soon
Politics
Sports
Crypto
Companies
Elections
Financials
Economics
Other
Entertainment
Science and Technology
Lowest temperature in Minneapolis on Jul 10, 2026?
kalshi

Lowest temperature in Minneapolis on Jul 10, 2026?

Volume:
$6,097

65° or above

 - Kalshi

65° or above - Kalshi

1W

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

Hover marker for details

Vol.

·

Resolved Jul 11, 2026

Closed: Jul 11, 2:00 AM EST

kalshi

Kalshi

View
Join Kalshi and score $25 for your first trade.
Outcome
Trade
Chance %
Price
Spread
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
kalshi

65° or above

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$4,067
N/A
N/A
$3,344
Settled
Yes
kalshi

63° to 64°

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$1,558
N/A
N/A
$887
Settled
No
kalshi

57° to 58°

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$147
N/A
N/A
$147
Settled
No
kalshi

56° or below

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$129
N/A
N/A
$129
Settled
No
kalshi

59° to 60°

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$126
N/A
N/A
$126
Settled
No
kalshi

61° to 62°

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$71
N/A
N/A
$71
Settled
No
Total markets: 6

Description

This market tracks the lowest temperature recorded in Minneapolis on July 10, 2026. The outcome will be determined by the official National Weather Service Climatological Report (Daily) for that date, with resolution based on which temperature range the recorded minimum falls into.

Kalshi

Resolution is determined by the minimum temperature recorded at Minneapolis on July 10, 2026, according to the National Weather Service's Climatological Report (Daily), accessed via the Minneapolis/St Paul, MN location on the NWS website. The official data source is the NWS Climatological Report rather than preliminary reports or third-party weather services. Temperature measurements may be subject to rounding and conversion nuances in preliminary NWS data, so traders should verify against the final official report. Each outcome corresponds to a specific temperature range: 56°F or below, 57-58°F, 59-60°F, 61-62°F, 63-64°F, or 65°F and above.

Frequently asked questions

The Minneapolis temperature low market dashboard on Kalshi tracks real-time odds and trading activity for the lowest temperature expected in Minneapolis on July 10, 2026. Traders buy and sell shares based on their forecasts, with the current odds reflecting the collective prediction of market participants. The dashboard displays the leading outcome, historical price movements, and total volume of $6,097 across all positions in this market. You can monitor how sentiment shifts as new weather data and seasonal forecasts emerge, giving you a dynamic view of what traders believe the day's temperature low will be.

Prediction market odds often diverge from traditional weather forecasts because they incorporate real-time trader behavior and incentives. While meteorologists issue deterministic temperature ranges based on atmospheric models, this market prices uncertainty through continuous trading. Traders who outperform the consensus earn profit, which encourages them to integrate the latest data faster than static forecasts update. Over time, prediction markets have shown competitive or superior accuracy to single-model forecasts, especially when many informed participants trade actively. Comparing this market's odds to published weather outlooks for July 10, 2026 can reveal where professional and crowd-sourced expectations align or diverge.

This market resolves around Jul 11, 2026, once July 10, 2026 has passed and the day's minimum temperature can be verified. The outcome is determined by comparing the actual low recorded on that date against the threshold specified in the contract. Verification relies on credible public weather data sources to confirm the final temperature reading. All open positions settle automatically based on whether the realized low meets or falls short of the stated boundary, with payouts distributed to winning traders immediately after confirmation.

Major weather pattern shifts, seasonal climate anomalies, and updated long-range forecasts from meteorological agencies will likely drive price swings in this market. El Niño or La Niña conditions, unusual jet-stream positioning, or heat waves affecting the Upper Midwest could all influence trader expectations weeks or months in advance. As July 2026 approaches, daily weather models will become more precise, triggering sharper repricing. Breaking news about atmospheric blocking patterns or polar vortex behavior may also prompt rapid trading activity. Traders monitoring climate indices and seasonal outlooks will adjust their positions ahead of major forecast updates, creating opportunities for early movers.