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Lowest temperature in Miami on June 29?
kalshi
polymarket

Lowest temperature in Miami on June 29?

Volume:
$30,128

81° to 82°

 - Kalshi

81° to 82° - Kalshi

1W

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

Hover marker for details

Vol.

·

Resolved Jun 30, 2026

Closed: Jun 29, 1:00 AM EST

kalshi

Kalshi

View
Join Kalshi and score $25 for your first trade.
Outcome
Trade
Chance %
Price
Spread
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
kalshi

81° to 82°

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$5,777
N/A
N/A
$3,279
Settled
Yes
polymarket

82-83°F

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
0.1¢
N/A
$5,255
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
polymarket

80-81°F

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$3,495
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
kalshi

79° to 80°

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$2,002
N/A
N/A
$1,472
Settled
No
polymarket

74-75°F

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$1,796
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

90°F or higher

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$1,553
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

84-85°F

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$1,463
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
kalshi

77° to 78°

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$1,328
N/A
N/A
$867
Settled
No
polymarket

78-79°F

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$1,235
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

71°F or below

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$1,057
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

88-89°F

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$866
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

76-77°F

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$865
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
kalshi

75° to 76°

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$801
N/A
N/A
$639
Settled
No
polymarket

72-73°F

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$752
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
kalshi

83° or above

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$708
N/A
N/A
$642
Settled
No
polymarket

86-87°F

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$652
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
kalshi

74° or below

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$521
N/A
N/A
$467
Settled
No
Total markets: 17

Description

This event group asks what the lowest temperature in Miami will be on June 29, 2026. Kalshi presents a yes/no binary on whether the temperature falls into any of six ranges, while Polymarket offers a suite of specific temperature range markets. Both use official weather data sources to resolve.

PredictionHero - Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA)

Divergence Detected

Issue: Kalshi contains a logical contradiction where all six temperature ranges resolve to Yes, making the market fundamentally unresolvable as stated. Additionally, Kalshi references June 28, 2026 while Polymarket correctly references June 29, 2026. The two platforms use different data sources and market structures.Hero tip: Do not trade Kalshi—the market logic is broken. Trade only Polymarket, which uses Wunderground data for Miami Intl Airport (KMIA) and offers mutually exclusive temperature ranges. Verify the exact temperature range you are betting on before placing a trade.

Critical divergence points:

  • Kalshi: Binary Yes/No market with six conditions, all resolving to Yes. Uses National Weather Service Climatological Report (Daily) for June 28, 2026. CRITICAL FLAW: Covers ranges 75-76°F, 77-78°F, 79-80°F, 81-82°F, plus <75°F and >82°F—collectively exhaustive, so market always resolves Yes. Date is also incorrect (June 28 vs June 29).
  • Polymarket: Suite of 11 mutually exclusive temperature range markets for June 29, 2026. Uses Wunderground historical data for Miami Intl Airport Station (KMIA), measured to whole degrees Fahrenheit. Ranges: 71°F or below, 72-73°F, 74-75°F, 76-77°F, 78-79°F, 80-81°F, 82-83°F, 84-85°F, 86-87°F, 88-89°F, 90°F or higher. Only one resolves Yes.
Our PredictionHero Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA) are there to help users identify potential differences across platforms. They do not replace or supersede the official rules and description of any prediction market. Users are solely responsible for reviewing and understanding the applicable rules and resolution criteria before placing any trade or bet. If you notice a potential inconsistency, discrepancy, or error in an alert, please report it to our team so we can review and improve the accuracy of our data.

Polymarket

This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the Miami Intl Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 29 Jun '26. The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Miami Intl Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/fl/miami/KMIA. To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C. This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source. The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.

Kalshi

Resolution is based on the minimum temperature recorded at Miami on June 28, 2026, as reported in the National Weather Service's Climatological Report (Daily), accessible via the Miami NWS office. The official data source is the NWS Daily Climate Report, not preliminary reports or third-party weather services. Temperature readings are categorized into six ranges: 74°F or below, 75-76°F, 77-78°F, 79-80°F, 81-82°F, and 83°F or above. Each range corresponds to a distinct market outcome. Traders should be aware that preliminary NWS data may be subject to rounding and conversion nuances, and should use the final published Daily Climate Report for the specified date.

Frequently asked questions

Prediction market prices reflect aggregated trader beliefs rather than official meteorological forecasts. While the National Weather Service and commercial weather models produce deterministic or probabilistic outlooks, this market distills those inputs—plus trader conviction and risk appetite—into a single odds curve. Traders often incorporate model consensus, historical patterns, and recent atmospheric data, but market prices can diverge from analyst consensus if traders believe models underestimate or overestimate the likelihood of extreme outcomes. Comparing this market's odds to published forecasts can reveal where crowd sentiment diverges from expert consensus.

Polymarket and Kalshi may price this market differently due to variations in liquidity, participant demographics, and contract design. Polymarket and Kalshi can show different implied probabilities for the same outcome because of liquidity, fee structure, participant mix, and how each venue defines the contract. Polymarket uses binary yes-or-no contracts on specific temperature ranges, while Kalshi employs continuous order-book pricing, which can lead to different marginal pricing and bid-ask spreads. Regulatory constraints, fee structures, and the timing of large trades also influence each platform's price discovery. Arbitrage opportunities between the two venues may persist if transaction costs or withdrawal friction prevent traders from instantly equalizing prices across platforms.

Major weather pattern shifts, tropical system development, or significant atmospheric pressure changes could reshape trader expectations and shift odds materially. Updated National Weather Service forecasts, model consensus shifts, or anomalous heat or cold events in the days leading up to June 29 often trigger repricing. Real-time satellite imagery, upper-level wind patterns, and sea-surface temperatures in the Atlantic and Gulf also influence intraday volatility. Large trader positions or sudden liquidity events on either platform can spike spreads and move midmarket prices, especially as the resolution date approaches and uncertainty narrows.