TOTAL VOLUME:

$134.1b

24H VOL:

$141,541,542

24H TRANSACTIONS:

2,388,728,490

OPEN INTEREST:

$1,440,096,988

406,065

Markets across

30,522

events

MATCHED EVENTS:

2,692

PLATFORM COVERAGE:

5

Polymarket:

39%

VS.

Kalshi:

61%

BETA
Dashboards
Insights
Indices
Tour
All
Trending
Breaking
New
Ending Soon
Politics
Sports
Crypto
Companies
Elections
Financials
Economics
Other
Entertainment
Science and Technology
Lowest temperature in Miami on June 27?
kalshi
polymarket

Lowest temperature in Miami on June 27?

Volume:
$50,615

80° to 81°

 - Kalshi

80° to 81° - Kalshi

1W

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

Hover marker for details

Vol.

·

Resolved Jun 28, 2026

Closed: Jun 27, 1:00 AM EST

kalshi

Kalshi

View
Join Kalshi and score $25 for your first trade.
Outcome
Trade
Chance %
Price
Spread
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
kalshi

80° to 81°

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$11,834
N/A
N/A
$4,856
Settled
Yes
polymarket

78-79°F

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
0.1¢
N/A
$3,716
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
kalshi

82° to 83°

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$4,413
N/A
N/A
$2,940
Settled
No
kalshi

78° to 79°

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$4,399
N/A
N/A
$2,110
Settled
No
kalshi

76° to 77°

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$4,378
N/A
N/A
$1,976
Settled
No
polymarket

90°F or higher

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$4,010
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

84-85°F

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$3,779
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

80-81°F

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$2,483
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
kalshi

84° or above

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$2,437
N/A
N/A
$2,436
Settled
No
kalshi

75° or below

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$1,997
N/A
N/A
$1,284
Settled
No
polymarket

82-83°F

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$1,495
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

76-77°F

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$1,456
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

74-75°F

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$1,103
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

88-89°F

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$907
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

71°F or below

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$871
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

72-73°F

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$701
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

86-87°F

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$637
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
Total markets: 17

Description

This event group asks what the lowest temperature will be in Miami on June 27, 2026. Kalshi frames it as a yes/no on whether the minimum temperature falls into specific ranges, while Polymarket offers granular temperature band outcomes. Both rely on official weather data sources to determine the actual recorded low temperature.

PredictionHero - Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA)

Divergence Detected

Issue: Kalshi references the wrong date (June 26 instead of June 27) and specifies National Weather Service as source, while Polymarket correctly targets June 27 and uses Wunderground. Kalshi's resolution logic is also logically broken: all six conditions resolve to YES, making the market unresolvable as a binary.Hero tip: Kalshi's market should not be traded in its current form due to the date error and logical contradiction. Polymarket's market is tradeable but requires confirmation that Wunderground has published and finalized June 27, 2026 data for Miami Intl Airport Station (KMIA) before you settle.

Critical divergence points:

  • Kalshi: References June 26, 2026 (not June 27 as the event title states). Uses National Weather Service Climatological Report (Daily) as source. All six temperature ranges (< 76°F, 76-77°F, 78-79°F, 80-81°F, 82-83°F, > 83°F) resolve to YES, creating a logical tautology that makes the market unresolvable.
  • Polymarket: Correctly targets June 27, 2026. Uses Wunderground historical data for Miami Intl Airport Station (KMIA) as authoritative source. Offers 11 distinct temperature band outcomes (71°F or below, 72-73°F, 74-75°F, 76-77°F, 78-79°F, 80-81°F, 82-83°F, 84-85°F, 86-87°F, 88-89°F, 90°F or higher) plus one binary threshold. Temperatures measured to whole degrees Fahrenheit. Allows revisions until first datapoint for June 28 is published.
Our PredictionHero Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA) are there to help users identify potential differences across platforms. They do not replace or supersede the official rules and description of any prediction market. Users are solely responsible for reviewing and understanding the applicable rules and resolution criteria before placing any trade or bet. If you notice a potential inconsistency, discrepancy, or error in an alert, please report it to our team so we can review and improve the accuracy of our data.

Polymarket

This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the Miami Intl Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 27 Jun '26. The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Miami Intl Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/fl/miami/KMIA. To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C. This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source. The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.

Kalshi

Resolution is determined by the minimum temperature recorded at Miami on June 26, 2026, according to the National Weather Service's Climatological Report (Daily), accessed via the Miami, FL location on the NWS website. The official data source is the NWS Climatological Report rather than preliminary reports or third-party weather services. Temperature measurements may be subject to rounding and conversion nuances in preliminary NWS data, so traders should verify against the final official report. Each outcome corresponds to a specific temperature range: 75°F or below, 76-77°F, 78-79°F, 80-81°F, 82-83°F, or 84°F and above.

Frequently asked questions

Prediction market prices often diverge from traditional weather forecasts because they incorporate real-time trader conviction and financial incentives absent in academic models. While meteorologists publish point estimates and confidence intervals, this market prices the probability of discrete temperature bands, allowing traders to express nuanced views. Market odds can move faster than official forecasts update, especially as new satellite data or atmospheric patterns emerge. Comparing the two reveals whether professional consensus and decentralized trader wisdom align or signal different risk assessments for the June 27 low.

Polymarket and Kalshi can show different implied probabilities for the same outcome because of liquidity, fee structure, participant mix, and how each venue defines the contract. Each platform attracts different trader demographics, liquidity pools, and risk tolerances, leading to price variation on identical outcomes. Kalshi's regulatory structure and user base may emphasize certain temperature ranges, while Polymarket's global audience and contract design can shift focus elsewhere. Funding availability, platform fees, and settlement mechanics also influence how traders price uncertainty. These differences create arbitrage opportunities and reflect the broader principle that decentralized markets rarely converge to a single price until close to resolution.

Major weather pattern shifts, tropical system formation, or unexpected atmospheric blocking could significantly alter the probability of extreme lows. Updated National Weather Service forecasts and European model runs often trigger repricing as new data becomes available. Seasonal climate anomalies, ocean temperature changes, and upper-level wind patterns all influence Miami's June temperature floor. Real-time satellite imagery and radar updates in the days leading up to June 27 will likely drive the most volatile price swings as traders refine their edge closer to the event.