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Lowest temperature in Miami on July 2?
kalshi
polymarket

Lowest temperature in Miami on July 2?

Volume:
$47,804

78-79°F

 - Polymarket

78-79°F - Polymarket

1W

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

Hover marker for details

Vol.

·

Resolved Jul 3, 2026

Closed: Jul 2, 8:00 AM EST

polymarket

Polymarket

View
Outcome
Trade
Chance %
Price
Spread
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
polymarket

78-79°F

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
0.1¢
N/A
$8,563
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
kalshi

78° to 79°

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$7,796
N/A
N/A
$4,609
Settled
Yes
kalshi

74° to 75°

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$3,852
N/A
N/A
$2,864
Settled
No
kalshi

76° to 77°

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$3,437
N/A
N/A
$1,838
Settled
No
kalshi

80° to 81°

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$2,933
N/A
N/A
$2,688
Settled
No
polymarket

88°F or higher

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$2,726
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
kalshi

82° or above

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$2,668
N/A
N/A
$2,647
Settled
No
polymarket

80-81°F

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$2,583
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

82-83°F

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$2,158
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

69°F or below

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$1,737
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
kalshi

73° or below

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$1,654
N/A
N/A
$946
Settled
No
polymarket

76-77°F

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$1,613
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

74-75°F

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$1,534
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

84-85°F

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$1,239
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

72-73°F

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$1,179
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

70-71°F

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$1,096
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

86-87°F

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$1,037
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
Total markets: 17

Description

These markets ask what the lowest temperature will be in Miami on July 2, 2026, measured in degrees Fahrenheit. Kalshi references July 1, 2026 data, while Polymarket references July 2, 2026 data—creating a fundamental date mismatch. Both use official weather service sources but measure different days.

PredictionHero - Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA)

Divergence Detected

Issue: Kalshi references July 1, 2026 while Polymarket references July 2, 2026—different calendar days. Additionally, Kalshi's resolution logic contains a logical contradiction: all six temperature ranges resolve to Yes, making the market unresolvable as stated.Hero tip: Avoid trading these markets as correlated or hedged positions. Kalshi's specification appears malformed (every outcome resolves Yes). Polymarket's temperature ranges are mutually exclusive and resolvable. Request clarification from Kalshi on the intended event date and whether the universal Yes resolution is correct.

Critical divergence points:

  • Kalshi: Resolves on minimum temperature for Jul 1, 2026 (not July 2). All six temperature ranges (below 74°F, 74-75°F, 76-77°F, 78-79°F, 80-81°F, above 81°F) resolve to Yes. This creates a logical contradiction: every possible temperature outcome resolves to Yes, rendering the market unresolvable. Source: National Weather Service Climatological Report (Daily).
  • Polymarket: Resolves on minimum temperature for Jul 2, 2026 (not July 1). Uses mutually exclusive temperature ranges (69°F or below through 88°F or higher) with exactly one resolving to Yes based on actual recorded low. Source: Wunderground historical data for Miami Intl Airport Station (KMIA), measured to whole degrees Fahrenheit.
Our PredictionHero Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA) are there to help users identify potential differences across platforms. They do not replace or supersede the official rules and description of any prediction market. Users are solely responsible for reviewing and understanding the applicable rules and resolution criteria before placing any trade or bet. If you notice a potential inconsistency, discrepancy, or error in an alert, please report it to our team so we can review and improve the accuracy of our data.

Polymarket

This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the Miami Intl Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 2 Jul '26. The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Miami Intl Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/fl/miami/KMIA. To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C. This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source. The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.

Kalshi

Resolution is based on the minimum temperature recorded at Miami, FL on July 1, 2026, as reported in the National Weather Service's Climatological Report (Daily) for the Miami location. The official data source is accessed via the NWS Regional Headquarters website under the Observed Weather tab. Temperature ranges are divided into six bands: 73°F or below, 74-75°F, 76-77°F, 78-79°F, 80-81°F, and 82°F or above, with each band corresponding to a distinct market outcome. Traders should note that preliminary NWS data may be subject to rounding and conversion nuances, and the final official NWS Climatological Report (Daily) serves as the authoritative source, superseding other weather data sources.