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Lowest temperature in Miami on July 12?
kalshi
polymarket

Lowest temperature in Miami on July 12?

Volume:
$36,768

75° or below

 - Kalshi

75° or below - Kalshi

1W

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

Hover marker for details

Vol.

·

Resolved Jul 13, 2026

Closed: Jul 12, 1:00 AM EST

kalshi

Kalshi

View
Join Kalshi and score $25 for your first trade.
Outcome
Trade
Chance %
Price
Spread
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
kalshi

75° or below

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$12,832
N/A
N/A
$10,348
Settled
Yes
polymarket

84-85°F

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
0.1¢
N/A
$1,755
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
kalshi

76° to 77°

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$3,486
N/A
N/A
$2,342
Settled
No
kalshi

80° to 81°

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$2,374
N/A
N/A
$1,774
Settled
No
kalshi

82° to 83°

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$2,193
N/A
N/A
$1,839
Settled
No
kalshi

78° to 79°

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$1,726
N/A
N/A
$1,022
Settled
No
polymarket

78-79°F

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$1,641
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

76-77°F

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$1,586
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

80-81°F

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$1,551
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

74-75°F

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$1,437
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

82-83°F

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$1,206
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

73°F or below

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$1,161
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

88-89°F

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$968
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
kalshi

84° or above

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$884
N/A
N/A
$761
Settled
No
polymarket

90-91°F

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$727
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

86-87°F

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$655
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

92°F or higher

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$587
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
Total markets: 17

Description

This event group asks what the lowest temperature will be in Miami on July 12, 2026. Kalshi frames it as a yes/no on whether the minimum temperature falls into various ranges, while Polymarket structures it as a categorical question asking which specific temperature range will occur. Both use official weather data sources to determine the actual recorded low temperature.

PredictionHero - Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA)

Divergence Detected

Issue: Kalshi and Polymarket reference different dates (July 11 vs July 12, 2026) and different authoritative sources (National Weather Service vs Wunderground). This creates a fundamental mismatch that makes cross-platform arbitrage impossible and introduces data integrity risk.Hero tip: Treat these as two separate markets, not hedges of each other. Verify with each platform operator which date and source are correct before placing significant capital. If both dates are intentional, understand that they measure different weather events and may resolve to different temperature ranges.

Critical divergence points:

  • Kalshi: All six binary outcomes (Yes/No) resolve based on the minimum temperature recorded at Miami for July 11, 2026, according to the National Weather Service Climatological Report (Daily). Every possible temperature range (below 76F, 76-77F, 78-79F, 80-81F, 82-83F, above 83F) resolves to Yes, making the market structure logically incoherent.
  • Polymarket: Categorical market resolving to whichever single temperature range contains the lowest temperature recorded at Miami Intl Airport Station on July 12, 2026, according to Wunderground historical data. Exactly one of thirteen ranges will resolve to Yes; all others resolve to No.
Our PredictionHero Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA) are there to help users identify potential differences across platforms. They do not replace or supersede the official rules and description of any prediction market. Users are solely responsible for reviewing and understanding the applicable rules and resolution criteria before placing any trade or bet. If you notice a potential inconsistency, discrepancy, or error in an alert, please report it to our team so we can review and improve the accuracy of our data.

Polymarket

This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the Miami Intl Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 12 Jul '26. The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Miami Intl Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/fl/miami/KMIA. To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C. This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source. The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.

Kalshi

Resolution is determined by the minimum temperature recorded at Miami on July 11, 2026, according to the National Weather Service's Climatological Report (Daily), accessible via the Miami, FL location on the NWS website. The official temperature data from this source takes precedence over preliminary reports or third-party weather services. Temperature measurements may be subject to rounding and conversion nuances in preliminary NWS data, so traders should exercise caution when interpreting early reports and rely on the final NWS Climatological Report (Daily) for definitive resolution.

Frequently asked questions

The Miami temperature prediction market aggregates trader forecasts for the lowest temperature in Miami on July 12 across Polymarket and Kalshi. This market lets participants wager on specific temperature thresholds, with real-money stakes reflecting collective expectations about summer weather patterns in South Florida. Traders on both venues compete to predict whether conditions will be cooler or warmer than key price levels, creating a dynamic consensus view that updates continuously as new information emerges. The dashboard displays current odds, recent volume, and leading outcomes across both platforms, offering a transparent window into how prediction markets price near-term climate events.

Prediction market prices often diverge from traditional weather forecasts because they reflect real financial incentives and crowd wisdom rather than single-model outputs. Traders who misread conditions lose money, creating pressure for accuracy that can sometimes outpace meteorological consensus. This market incorporates live updates, social signals, and heterogeneous beliefs—factors that weather models may weight differently or ignore entirely. While meteorologists rely on physics-based simulations, prediction markets blend those insights with trader intuition and risk appetite, occasionally surfacing early signals that formal forecasts have not yet captured.

Major weather pattern shifts, tropical system forecasts, and updated atmospheric models can all trigger sharp repricing in this market. If meteorologists issue revised outlooks showing cooler or warmer conditions ahead, traders will adjust positions accordingly. Real-time satellite data, upper-level wind patterns, and sea-surface temperatures in the Atlantic also influence expectations. Breaking news about heat domes, cold fronts, or moisture surges will likely spark trading spikes as participants reassess their odds. Closer to July 12, intraday forecasts and early-morning observations may drive final positioning as traders lock in their bets.