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Lowest temperature in Miami on July 11?
kalshi
polymarket

Lowest temperature in Miami on July 11?

Volume:
$83,391

76° or below

 - Kalshi

76° or below - Kalshi

1W

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

Hover marker for details

Vol.

·

Resolved Jul 12, 2026

Closed: Jul 11, 1:00 AM EST

kalshi

Kalshi

View
Join Kalshi and score $25 for your first trade.
Outcome
Trade
Chance %
Price
Spread
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
kalshi

76° or below

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$13,437
N/A
N/A
$11,532
Settled
Yes
polymarket

72-73°F

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
0.1¢
N/A
$5,507
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
kalshi

83° to 84°

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$8,339
N/A
N/A
$5,037
Settled
No
polymarket

74-75°F

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$6,529
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

80-81°F

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$6,377
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

71°F or below

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$6,161
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

82-83°F

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$5,919
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

84-85°F

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$5,126
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

76-77°F

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$4,797
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
kalshi

77° to 78°

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$4,484
N/A
N/A
$3,331
Settled
No
kalshi

81° to 82°

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$4,206
N/A
N/A
$2,188
Settled
No
kalshi

79° to 80°

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$3,501
N/A
N/A
$1,257
Settled
No
polymarket

78-79°F

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$2,420
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

86-87°F

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$1,930
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

90°F or higher

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$1,870
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
kalshi

85° or above

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$1,593
N/A
N/A
$1,431
Settled
No
polymarket

88-89°F

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$1,195
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
Total markets: 17

Description

This event group asks what the lowest temperature in Miami will be on July 11, 2026. Both platforms are measuring the same underlying weather phenomenon but use different data sources, date references, and temperature binning approaches. The core question is unified, but the resolution mechanics diverge significantly.

PredictionHero - Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA)

Divergence Detected

Issue: Kalshi's resolution logic is internally contradictory and unresolvable: all six conditions resolve to YES, leaving no path to NO. Additionally, Kalshi measures July 10 while Polymarket measures July 11, and they use different data sources (NWS vs Wunderground). This creates both a logical integrity failure and a date reference mismatch.Hero tip: Kalshi's market as written cannot resolve to NO under any temperature outcome—this is a critical data integrity failure. Polymarket's markets are logically sound but depend on Wunderground's historical data availability and whole-degree rounding. Only trade Polymarket markets after confirming Wunderground data is published and stable for July 12, 2026 (the first datapoint of the following date).

Critical divergence points:

  • Kalshi: Resolves to YES for all temperature ranges on July 10, 2026 per NWS Climatological Report (Daily). Conditions cover <77°F, 77-78°F, 79-80°F, 81-82°F, 83-84°F, and >84°F—all YES. No NO outcome is defined. Key Quote: 'If the minimum temperature recorded at Miami for Jul 10, 2026, is [any of six ranges]... then the market resolves to Yes.'
  • Polymarket: Resolves to specific temperature ranges on July 11, 2026 per Wunderground KMIA station historical data, measured to whole degrees Fahrenheit. Eleven binary markets cover ranges from ≤71°F through ≥90°F. Exactly one range will resolve YES; others resolve NO. Key Quote: 'This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the Miami Intl Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 11 Jul '26.'
Our PredictionHero Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA) are there to help users identify potential differences across platforms. They do not replace or supersede the official rules and description of any prediction market. Users are solely responsible for reviewing and understanding the applicable rules and resolution criteria before placing any trade or bet. If you notice a potential inconsistency, discrepancy, or error in an alert, please report it to our team so we can review and improve the accuracy of our data.

Polymarket

This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the Miami Intl Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 11 Jul '26. The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Miami Intl Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/fl/miami/KMIA. To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C. This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source. The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.

Kalshi

Resolution is determined by the minimum temperature recorded at Miami on July 10, 2026, according to the National Weather Service's Climatological Report (Daily), accessed via the Miami, FL location on the NWS website. The official data source is the NWS Climatological Report rather than preliminary reports or third-party weather services. Temperature measurements may be subject to rounding and conversion nuances in preliminary NWS data, so traders should verify against the final official report. Each outcome corresponds to a specific temperature range: 76°F or below, 77-78°F, 79-80°F, 81-82°F, 83-84°F, or 85°F and above.

Frequently asked questions

The Miami temperature prediction market aggregates forecasts for the lowest temperature in Miami on July 11 across Polymarket and Kalshi. Traders on both venues submit bids and asks on specific temperature ranges, creating real-time odds that reflect collective expectations. This market captures how prediction market participants assess weather outcomes days in advance, offering a snapshot of consensus sentiment alongside traditional meteorological models. Volume across venues provides insight into trader confidence and market depth for this particular weather event.

Prediction market prices often diverge from conventional weather forecasts because they incorporate trader risk appetite, historical accuracy adjustments, and real-time information flow. While meteorologists issue probabilistic forecasts based on atmospheric models, this market reflects what traders are willing to stake financially on specific outcomes. Over time, prediction markets have demonstrated competitive accuracy against expert forecasts, particularly when volume is substantial. Comparing the two approaches reveals whether the crowd is more or less bullish on extreme temperatures than traditional models suggest.