Lowest temperature in Los Angeles on May 30, 2026?

On Kalshi, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. On Kalshi, the lowest temperature in Los Angeles on May 30, 2026, is priced as a binary or range-based contract where traders buy and sell shares corresponding to specific temperature thresholds or outcomes. Each share reflects the market's probability estimate for that outcome, with prices ranging from near zero to near one dollar. As new information emerges—such as seasonal forecasts, atmospheric patterns, or historical analogues—traders adjust their positions, moving prices up or down. The final settlement price on May 31, 2026 will be determined by the actual recorded low temperature on that date.

The market resolves on May 31, 2026, after May 30, 2026, concludes. Resolution is determined by the official lowest temperature recorded in Los Angeles on that day. The specific data source and measurement criteria are defined in the contract terms at the time of trading. Once the day's low temperature is confirmed, the corresponding outcome shares are settled at their final value, and traders' profits or losses are calculated based on their positions and entry prices.

Several factors could shift odds for Los Angeles's May 30 low temperature. Seasonal climate patterns, El Niño or La Niña conditions, and long-range weather model updates will influence expectations. As May approaches, medium-range forecasts from the National Weather Service become more reliable and can trigger sharp repricing. Urban heat island effects, marine layer activity, and historical May temperature records also inform trader decisions. Major atmospheric events—such as unusual high-pressure systems or cold fronts—could alter the probability distribution. Real-time weather data and forecast consensus in the final week before May 30 typically drive the most significant price movements.