TOTAL VOLUME:
$134.1b
24H VOL:
$113,466,932
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,388,728,490
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,423,222,590
402,751
Markets across
30,217
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
2,632
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
39%
VS.
Kalshi:
61%
Closed: Jun 10, 4:00 AM EST
Kalshi
This event tracks the minimum temperature recorded in Los Angeles on June 9, 2026, as reported by the National Weather Service's Climatological Report. The market appears designed to capture virtually any temperature outcome, as the resolution rules cover all possible temperature ranges from below 53°F to above 60°F.
On Kalshi, the lowest temperature in Los Angeles on June 9, 2026 is priced as a binary or range-based contract reflecting different temperature thresholds. On Kalshi, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. Traders buy and sell shares corresponding to their belief about whether the actual low will fall within or outside specified ranges. The price of each contract directly represents the market's implied probability of that outcome occurring. As new weather data emerges or trading interest shifts, contract prices adjust dynamically, allowing you to enter or exit positions at market rates that reflect current consensus.
The market resolves on Jun 10, 2026, after the lowest temperature for June 9, 2026 in Los Angeles has been recorded and verified. Resolution depends on the official temperature data for that date, which is typically sourced from recognized meteorological authorities. Once the actual low temperature is confirmed, the market settles based on which outcome bracket or threshold the recorded temperature falls into. Traders holding contracts aligned with the final outcome receive their winnings, while mismatched positions expire worthless.
Several factors could shift odds for the lowest temperature in Los Angeles on June 9, 2026. Major weather pattern changes, such as shifts in high-pressure systems or marine layer intensity, will influence trader expectations. Updated seasonal forecasts from meteorological agencies and real-time atmospheric data closer to the date will drive repricing. El Niño or La Niña conditions, unusual heat waves or cold snaps in the preceding weeks, and any anomalous jet stream behavior could all move the market. As June 9 approaches, increasingly accurate short-range forecasts will narrow uncertainty and finalize pricing.