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Lowest temperature in London on May 30?
polymarket

Lowest temperature in London on May 30?

Volume:
$21,187

17°C

 - Polymarket

17°C - Polymarket

1W

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

Hover marker for details

Vol.

·

Resolved May 31, 2026

Closed: May 30, 8:00 AM EST

polymarket

Polymarket

View
Outcome
Trade
Chance %
Price
Spread
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
polymarket

17°C

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
0.1¢
N/A
$5,571
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
polymarket

18°C

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$4,306
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

16°C

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$3,014
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

14°C

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$2,459
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

15°C

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$1,858
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

19°C or higher

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$1,387
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

13°C

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$980
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

12°C

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$623
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

10°C

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$484
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

9°C or below

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$258
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

11°C

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$247
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
Total markets: 11

Intro

This market tracks whether London's lowest temperature will reach specific thresholds on May 30, 2026, based on readings from the London City Airport Station. On Polymarket, the leading outcome—a low of 15°C—stands at 31.0%, while a low of 17°C is priced at 20.5%. Resolution will be determined by historical weather data from Weather Underground. Watch the actual temperature reading recorded at London City Airport on May 30, 2026, which will determine the final settlement.

Frequently asked questions

Prediction market odds reflect real-money trader expectations and often incorporate meteorological forecasts faster than traditional analyst consensus. While weather agencies and climate models provide deterministic temperature ranges, prediction markets price in uncertainty and tail risks through continuous bidding. Traders on Polymarket weigh multiple data sources—seasonal patterns, atmospheric pressure systems, and ensemble model outputs—to set odds. Market prices typically converge toward official forecasts as resolution approaches, but can diverge significantly in early trading when uncertainty is highest. Comparing market-implied probabilities to published weather forecasts reveals where traders see edge or disagreement with institutional predictions.

The market resolves on May 30, 2026, after the lowest temperature recorded in London on May 30 is officially confirmed. Resolution depends on verified meteorological data from the designated weather station or official source specified in the market terms. Once the actual low temperature is published, the outcome contract matching that threshold or range settles to 100 cents, while all other contracts settle to zero. Early resolution is possible if the threshold is mathematically impossible to reach before midnight, but standard markets wait for the full day's data. Traders should review the exact resolution criteria in the market details to confirm which data source is authoritative.

Major weather system shifts, updated ensemble forecasts, and seasonal anomalies will drive price movement. A sudden cold front or high-pressure system moving into the UK could lower expected temperatures and shift odds toward colder outcomes. Conversely, warm air masses or delayed spring weather patterns could push traders toward higher temperature contracts. Real-time atmospheric data, jet stream positioning, and soil moisture levels influence short-term forecasts. As May 30 approaches, intraday weather updates and final model runs become critical price drivers. Traders also react to historical May temperature records and climate normals, using them as anchors for probability estimates. Extreme weather events elsewhere in Europe may also shift regional patterns and trader sentiment.