Lowest temperature in London on June 28?

Prediction market odds reflect real-money incentives that encourage traders to incorporate the latest meteorological analysis and historical weather data. Unlike traditional forecasts from individual analysts or weather services, this market continuously updates as new information emerges and traders adjust positions. The crowd-sourced nature of prediction markets often captures a broader range of scenarios and uncertainty than single-point estimates, making odds a useful benchmark for comparing against published forecasts from the UK Met Office or other weather authorities.

On Polymarket, traders set prices by buying and selling binary outcome shares, with the current price reflecting the implied probability of each outcome. On Polymarket, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. The top outcome—whether the lowest temperature will be 15°C or below on June 28—is currently priced to reflect market sentiment. As new weather data, seasonal forecasts, or climate patterns emerge, traders adjust their positions, moving prices up or down to reflect changing expectations about the likelihood of cooler conditions.

This market resolves around Jun 28, 2026, once June 28 has passed and the lowest temperature recorded in London can be verified. The outcome is determined by comparing the actual low temperature against the specified thresholds in each outcome. Resolution is confirmed using credible public reporting from established weather monitoring sources, ensuring that the result reflects the true meteorological record for that date.

Updated seasonal forecasts, shifts in jet stream patterns, or anomalies in Atlantic weather systems could significantly influence trader expectations. Major weather model updates from meteorological agencies often trigger repricing as traders incorporate new data. Additionally, any unusual atmospheric conditions or climate oscillations in the weeks leading up to June 28 may prompt traders to reassess the probability of below-average temperatures, causing prices to shift as new information becomes available.