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Lowest temperature in London on June 25?
polymarket

Lowest temperature in London on June 25?

Volume:
$13,426

20°C

 - Polymarket

20°C - Polymarket

1W

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

Hover marker for details

Vol.

·

Resolved Jun 25, 2026

Closed: Jun 25, 8:00 AM EST

polymarket

Polymarket

View
Outcome
Trade
Chance %
Price
Spread
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
polymarket

20°C

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
0.1¢
N/A
$4,615
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
polymarket

21°C

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$1,930
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

19°C

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$1,584
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

23°C

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$1,121
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

18°C

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$1,058
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

24°C

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$698
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

22°C

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$634
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

17°C

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$596
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

16°C

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$581
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

25°C or higher

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$385
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

15°C or below

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$223
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
Total markets: 11

Description

This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the London City Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 25 Jun '26. The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the London City Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/gb/london/EGLC. To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C. This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source. The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.

Polymarket

This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the London City Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 25 Jun '26. The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the London City Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/gb/london/EGLC. To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C. This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source. The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.

Frequently asked questions

On Polymarket, the London temperature market dashboard tracks real-time odds and trading activity for the lowest temperature forecast in London on June 25. The interface displays current market prices, 24-hour volume of $7,745, and cumulative trading volume of $13,426 across all outcome contracts. Traders use this data to monitor how market sentiment shifts as new weather models and forecasts emerge, allowing participants to refine their positions based on the most recent meteorological updates and peer trading patterns.

Prediction market odds often diverge from traditional weather analyst forecasts because they incorporate real-time trader conviction and aggregate dispersed information across many participants. While meteorologists publish deterministic point forecasts and confidence intervals, this market prices uncertainty through continuous trading. Comparing the implied probability in this market to published forecasts from the UK Met Office or other agencies can reveal where traders believe official models may be underweighting or overweighting specific temperature ranges, offering a complementary perspective on June 25 conditions.

This market resolves around Jun 25, 2026, once June 25 has passed and the lowest temperature recorded in London can be verified. The outcome is confirmed against credible public reporting from established meteorological sources, ensuring an objective and transparent settlement. Traders holding contracts aligned with the verified temperature will receive their winnings, while positions on incorrect outcomes expire worthless, creating strong incentives for accurate forecasting throughout the trading period.

Major weather model updates, seasonal climate anomalies, and atmospheric pressure systems over the North Atlantic can all shift market prices significantly. Unexpected heat waves or cold fronts predicted by the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts or other agencies will prompt traders to reprrice their positions. Additionally, historical temperature records for late June in London and real-time observations in the days leading up to June 25 serve as key reference points, causing sharp trading activity when actual conditions begin to diverge from earlier consensus expectations.