Lowest temperature in London on June 13?

On Polymarket, the lowest temperature outcome for London on June 13 is priced as a set of binary or range-based contracts, each representing a specific temperature threshold or band. On Polymarket, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. Traders buy and sell shares corresponding to their belief about whether the actual low will fall within that range, with prices reflecting the collective probability assigned by the market. As June 13 approaches and real-time weather data becomes more precise, prices typically converge toward the most likely outcome, rewarding early accurate predictions and punishing miscalibrated positions.

The market resolves on Jun 13, 2026, after the close of trading on June 13, 2026. Resolution is determined by the official lowest temperature recorded in London on that date, sourced from a designated weather station or meteorological authority. Once the actual low temperature is confirmed and published, the outcome is locked in and payouts are distributed to holders of the winning contract. Early resolution or disputes are rare when using established, publicly available temperature data from recognized sources.

Major weather pattern shifts, including changes to jet stream positioning, high-pressure systems, or unexpected cold fronts, can significantly alter odds for London's June 13 low. Updated seasonal forecasts from meteorological agencies, long-range model consensus shifts, and real-time atmospheric data releases will influence trader positioning. Historical June temperature records, anomalies in spring weather leading up to mid-June, and any unusual climate events in the North Atlantic or Europe may also trigger repricing. As the date approaches, short-range forecasts become more reliable and typically drive sharper market moves.