Lowest temperature in London on June 10?

On Polymarket, the lowest temperature in London on June 10 is priced through outcome tokens representing discrete temperature ranges or specific thresholds. On Polymarket, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. Each outcome token trades at a price between 0 and 1, with the sum of all outcome prices equaling 1. Traders buy and sell these tokens based on their belief in which temperature range will occur. Prices update continuously as new orders flow in, and the current market price of each outcome directly reflects its implied probability among active traders on the platform.

The market resolves on Jun 10, 2026, after the June 10 observation period closes. Resolution is determined by the official lowest temperature recorded in London on that date. The specific data source and measurement methodology are defined in the market's resolution criteria, ensuring an objective, verifiable outcome. Once the temperature is confirmed, the corresponding outcome token settles to 1 and all other outcomes settle to 0, distributing winnings to holders of the correct outcome.

Major weather pattern shifts, updated seasonal forecasts, and real-time atmospheric data releases can significantly move odds. Sudden changes in jet stream positioning, high-pressure or low-pressure system development, and anomalous ocean temperatures may alter expectations for June 10 conditions. Additionally, historical weather analogues and model consensus updates published by meteorological agencies will influence trader positioning. As June 10 approaches, actual weather observations in late May and early June will provide increasingly concrete signals, causing market repricing as uncertainty narrows.