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Lowest temperature in Las Vegas on May 28, 2026?
kalshi

Lowest temperature in Las Vegas on May 28, 2026?

Volume:
$5,185

57° to 58°

 - Kalshi

57° to 58° - Kalshi

1W

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

Hover marker for details

Vol.

·

Resolved May 29, 2026

Closed: May 29, 4:00 AM EST

kalshi

Kalshi

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Join Kalshi and score $25 for your first trade.
Outcome
Trade
Chance %
Price
Spread
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
kalshi

57° to 58°

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$1,803
N/A
N/A
$1,749
Settled
Yes
kalshi

61° or above

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$909
N/A
N/A
$860
Settled
No
kalshi

55° to 56°

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$854
N/A
N/A
$837
Settled
No
kalshi

59° to 60°

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$785
N/A
N/A
$685
Settled
No
kalshi

53° to 54°

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$425
N/A
N/A
$424
Settled
No
kalshi

52° or below

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$410
N/A
N/A
$410
Settled
No
Total markets: 6

Intro

This market tracks whether the lowest temperature recorded in Las Vegas on May 28, 2026, will fall within the 57-58° Fahrenheit range. On Kalshi, the leading outcome—that the minimum temperature stays in that band—stands at 99.0%, while the possibility of temperatures exceeding 60° is priced at 1.0%. Resolution will be determined by the National Weather Service's Climatological Report (Daily) for that date. Watch the actual low temperature reading on May 29, 2026, when the National Weather Service publishes its official daily report for Las Vegas.

Frequently asked questions

Prediction market odds on Kalshi reflect real-money bets from traders and differ from traditional weather analyst forecasts. While meteorologists issue probabilistic forecasts based on atmospheric models and historical data, prediction markets aggregate the beliefs of many participants with financial incentives to be accurate. Analyst forecasts typically focus on expected conditions and confidence intervals, whereas market odds express the collective willingness to bet on specific temperature thresholds. Comparing the two reveals whether traders are pricing in more or less risk than official forecasts suggest, offering insight into market sentiment versus institutional weather predictions.

The market resolves on May 29, 2026, after the May 28, 2026 trading day concludes and the lowest temperature for Las Vegas is officially recorded. Resolution depends on the actual minimum temperature observed in Las Vegas on that date. The specific temperature threshold or range determines which contracts pay out and which expire worthless. Traders should monitor official weather data sources and market announcements as the resolution date approaches to understand how outcomes will be determined and settled.

Several factors could shift market odds for the lowest temperature in Las Vegas on May 28, 2026. Long-range weather models updated in the months leading to May will influence trader expectations as forecasts become more precise. Major climate patterns, such as high-pressure systems or unusual jet-stream positioning, could signal warmer or colder conditions. Historical temperature trends and seasonal anomalies may prompt traders to adjust positions. Additionally, any significant weather events or atmospheric disturbances in the weeks before May 28 could alter the probability of extreme cold or warmth, causing market prices to move as new information becomes available.