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Lowest temperature in Hong Kong on May 30?
polymarket

Lowest temperature in Hong Kong on May 30?

Volume:
$43,536

27°C

 - Polymarket

27°C - Polymarket

1W

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

Hover marker for details

Vol.

·

Resolved Jun 1, 2026

Closed: May 30, 8:00 AM EST

polymarket

Polymarket

View
Outcome
Trade
Chance %
Price
Spread
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
polymarket

27°C

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
0.1¢
N/A
$26,632
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
polymarket

26°C

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$4,522
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

24°C

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$3,301
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

25°C

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$2,747
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

29°C

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$2,355
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

28°C

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$1,361
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

30°C or higher

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$1,246
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

23°C

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$649
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

21°C

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$347
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

20°C or below

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$305
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

22°C

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$71
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
Total markets: 11

Intro

This market tracks the lowest temperature recorded in Hong Kong on May 30, 2026, as measured by the Hong Kong Observatory. On Polymarket, the leading outcome—that the lowest temperature will be 27°C—stands at 34.0%, while the second outcome of 26°C holds 26.5% probability. Resolution will use the Hong Kong Observatory's official daily temperature data, measured to one decimal place. Watch for the Hong Kong Observatory's publication of the "Absolute Daily Min" temperature reading for May 30, 2026, which will determine the final outcome.

Frequently asked questions

Prediction market odds reflect real-money consensus from traders on Polymarket, while meteorological analyst forecasts come from weather services and climate models. Analysts typically issue deterministic point estimates or ranges based on atmospheric data, whereas prediction markets express probabilities across discrete temperature outcomes. For Hong Kong's May 30 low, comparing market-implied odds to official weather bureau forecasts can reveal whether traders are pricing in greater uncertainty, seasonal patterns, or recent climate signals that formal models may weight differently.

The market resolves on May 30, 2026, after the lowest temperature recorded in Hong Kong on May 30 is finalized. Resolution hinges on the official temperature reading from the designated weather authority for that date. Once the actual low is confirmed, the outcome contract matching that temperature threshold settles to 100 cents, while all other contracts settle to zero. Early resolution is possible if the temperature falls outside all predefined ranges, depending on market rules.

Major weather pattern shifts, tropical cyclone activity, or monsoon onset timing could significantly move odds for Hong Kong's May 30 low. Updated seasonal forecasts from meteorological agencies, anomalous atmospheric pressure systems, or sudden shifts in ocean temperatures may trigger trader repositioning. As May approaches, real-time weather models become more precise, allowing traders to refine probability estimates. Historical climate data for late May and any unusual global weather events could also influence market pricing before the resolution date arrives.