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Lowest temperature in Hong Kong on May 29?
polymarket

Lowest temperature in Hong Kong on May 29?

Volume:
$60,535

27°C

 - Polymarket

27°C - Polymarket

1W

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

Hover marker for details

Vol.

·

Resolved Jun 1, 2026

Closed: May 29, 8:00 AM EST

polymarket

Polymarket

View
Outcome
Trade
Chance %
Price
Spread
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
polymarket

27°C

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
0.1¢
N/A
$12,804
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
polymarket

28°C

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$14,244
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

26°C

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$7,908
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

23°C

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$7,868
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

29°C

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$4,642
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

24°C

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$3,364
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

30°C

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$3,009
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

25°C

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$2,770
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

31°C or higher

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$2,651
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

21°C or below

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$755
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

22°C

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$521
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
Total markets: 11

Intro

This market tracks whether the lowest temperature recorded in Hong Kong will fall within the 28°C range on May 29, 2026. On Polymarket, the leading outcome—a low of 28°C—stands at 98.6%, while the alternative outcome of 27°C holds 0.5%. Resolution will be determined by the Hong Kong Observatory's official daily temperature data, specifically the "Absolute Daily Min" figure measured to one decimal place. Watch for the Hong Kong Observatory's finalized temperature reading on May 29, 2026, which will settle this market once the data is officially recorded.

Frequently asked questions

Prediction market odds on Polymarket reflect real-money trader expectations and incorporate weather models, historical May patterns, and seasonal climate data for Hong Kong. Traditional meteorological forecasts from agencies like the Hong Kong Observatory typically rely on deterministic models and expert interpretation. Prediction markets often diverge from single-point forecasts because traders price in uncertainty and tail risks. Comparing Polymarket odds to published analyst temperature ranges can reveal whether markets are pricing in more or less volatility than official guidance suggests for late May conditions.

The market resolves on May 29, 2026, after the lowest temperature in Hong Kong on May 29 has been recorded and verified. Resolution depends on official temperature data from the relevant meteorological authority for Hong Kong. The specific temperature threshold or range that determines each outcome is defined in the market's resolution criteria. Traders should review the exact outcome definitions before trading to understand which temperature readings will trigger each resolution state.

Major weather pattern shifts, tropical cyclone activity, or monsoon onset timing could significantly move odds. Updated seasonal forecasts from meteorological agencies and real-time atmospheric models will influence trader positioning. Historical May temperature anomalies and climate oscillations like the Indian Ocean Dipole or El Niño conditions may be priced in. As May 29 approaches, short-range weather forecasts become more precise, typically causing sharper price moves. Urban heat island effects and local pollution levels can also affect minimum temperatures, making regional air quality reports and urban development news relevant catalysts for prediction market repricing.