Lowest temperature in Hong Kong on June 25?

Prediction market odds on this market reflect real-money positions from traders worldwide, often diverging from traditional meteorological forecasts. While weather analysts rely on numerical models and historical data, prediction markets aggregate dispersed information and financial incentives, sometimes revealing consensus that differs from official projections. Comparing the current odds here to published forecasts from Hong Kong's Observatory or regional weather services can highlight where traders see risk or opportunity that analysts may have underweighted. These differences often prove instructive for understanding tail risks and market-implied probabilities around temperature extremes.

This market resolves around Jun 25, 2026, once June 25 has passed and the lowest temperature recorded in Hong Kong that day is confirmed. The outcome will be verified against credible public sources to determine which temperature bracket or exact reading occurred. Resolution typically happens within hours or a day after the event, once official meteorological data is published and validated. Traders holding shares in the correct outcome receive their payout proportional to the final odds.

Major weather pattern shifts, tropical storm developments, or updated seasonal forecasts from meteorological agencies can significantly move this market. Real-time model runs in the days leading up to June 25 will likely trigger price swings as traders react to changing confidence in temperature predictions. Unexpected atmospheric events, such as a cold front or unusual monsoon behavior, could also reshape odds. Additionally, historical temperature records for that date and recent Hong Kong weather trends may influence trader positioning as the event date draws closer.