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Lowest temperature in Hong Kong on June 12?
polymarket

Lowest temperature in Hong Kong on June 12?

Volume:
$43,014

26°C

 - Polymarket

26°C - Polymarket

1W

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

Hover marker for details

Vol.

·

Resolved Jun 15, 2026

Closed: Jun 12, 8:00 AM EST

polymarket

Polymarket

View
Outcome
Trade
Chance %
Price
Spread
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
polymarket

26°C

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
0.1¢
N/A
$21,948
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
polymarket

25°C

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$6,766
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

27°C

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$4,426
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

24°C

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$2,932
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

23°C

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$2,444
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

22°C

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$944
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

28°C

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$908
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

21°C or below

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$848
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

29°C

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$710
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

31°C or higher

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$668
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

30°C

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$420
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
Total markets: 11

Description

This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by the Hong Kong Observatory in degrees Celsius on 12 Jun '26. The resolution source for this market will be information from the Hong Kong Observatory, specifically the "Absolute Daily Min (deg. C)" the specified date once information is finalized in the relevant "Daily Extract", available here: https://www.weather.gov.hk/en/cis/climat.htm This market can not resolve until data for this date has been published. The resolution source for this market measures temperatures in Celsius to one decimal place (eg, 9.1°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is initially published for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.

Polymarket

This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by the Hong Kong Observatory in degrees Celsius on 12 Jun '26. The resolution source for this market will be information from the Hong Kong Observatory, specifically the "Absolute Daily Min (deg. C)" the specified date once information is finalized in the relevant "Daily Extract", available here: https://www.weather.gov.hk/en/cis/climat.htm This market can not resolve until data for this date has been published. The resolution source for this market measures temperatures in Celsius to one decimal place (eg, 9.1°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is initially published for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.

Frequently asked questions

On Polymarket, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. On Polymarket, the lowest temperature in Hong Kong on June 12 is priced as a set of outcome contracts, each representing a specific temperature range or threshold. Traders buy and sell shares in outcomes they believe will occur, with prices reflecting the collective probability estimate. The market uses an automated market maker or order-book mechanism to determine prices based on supply and demand, allowing continuous trading until resolution on Jun 12, 2026.

The market resolves on Jun 12, 2026, after the lowest temperature for June 12 in Hong Kong has been recorded. Resolution is determined by official meteorological data from a designated weather authority or data provider, ensuring an objective, verifiable outcome. Once the actual lowest temperature is confirmed, the corresponding outcome contract is settled and traders receive payouts based on their positions.

Key signals include updated seasonal forecasts, atmospheric pressure systems, tropical weather patterns, and any approaching monsoon activity. Real-time weather model updates from major meteorological centers can shift market odds significantly. Historical temperature anomalies, El Niño or La Niña conditions, and urban heat island effects in Hong Kong also influence trader expectations. As June 12 approaches, short-range forecasts become more reliable, typically causing sharper price movements and narrower outcome ranges.