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Lowest temperature in Hong Kong on July 7?
polymarket

Lowest temperature in Hong Kong on July 7?

Volume:
$72,814

25°C

 - Polymarket

25°C - Polymarket

1W

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

Hover marker for details

Vol.

·

Resolved Jul 8, 2026

Closed: Jul 7, 8:00 AM EST

polymarket

Polymarket

View
Outcome
Trade
Chance %
Price
Spread
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
polymarket

25°C

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
0.1¢
N/A
$10,255
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
polymarket

27°C

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$16,722
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

26°C

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$16,271
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

28°C

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$8,115
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

22°C or below

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$4,388
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

23°C

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$4,370
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

24°C

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$4,284
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

29°C

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$3,021
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

31°C

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$2,156
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

32°C or higher

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$1,777
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

30°C

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$1,454
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
Total markets: 11

Description

This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by the Hong Kong Observatory in degrees Celsius on 7 Jul '26. The resolution source for this market will be information from the Hong Kong Observatory, specifically the "Absolute Daily Min (deg. C)" the specified date once information is finalized in the relevant "Daily Extract", available here: https://www.weather.gov.hk/en/cis/climat.htm This market can not resolve until data for this date has been published. The resolution source for this market measures temperatures in Celsius to one decimal place (eg, 9.1°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is initially published for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.

Polymarket

This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by the Hong Kong Observatory in degrees Celsius on 7 Jul '26. The resolution source for this market will be information from the Hong Kong Observatory, specifically the "Absolute Daily Min (deg. C)" the specified date once information is finalized in the relevant "Daily Extract", available here: https://www.weather.gov.hk/en/cis/climat.htm This market can not resolve until data for this date has been published. The resolution source for this market measures temperatures in Celsius to one decimal place (eg, 9.1°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is initially published for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.

Frequently asked questions

On Polymarket, this market is priced through an automated market maker that adjusts odds based on order flow and liquidity. On Polymarket, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. Traders submit buy and sell orders for shares corresponding to specific temperature thresholds; the platform calculates implied probabilities from the current bid-ask spreads. As more capital flows into a particular outcome—such as the 23°C contract—its price rises and the competing outcomes fall. This continuous repricing ensures the market reflects the latest information and trader conviction, with prices updating in real time throughout the trading window.

This market resolves around Jul 7, 2026, once the actual lowest temperature recorded in Hong Kong on July 7 is verifiable from credible public sources. The outcome is determined by comparing the recorded low against the temperature thresholds embedded in each contract. Traders holding shares in the contract matching the verified outcome receive their payout; all other positions expire worthless. Resolution timing depends on when official meteorological data is published and confirmed, typically within hours of the close of the trading day.

Several catalysts can shift odds significantly before Jul 7, 2026. Updated weather models and tropical storm forecasts are primary drivers, especially if a system approaches Hong Kong in early July. Real-time atmospheric pressure, humidity, and wind patterns reported by meteorological agencies will influence trader positioning. Historical temperature anomalies or seasonal trend reports may also trigger repricing. Additionally, any unexpected climate events—such as unusual heat waves or cold fronts—could prompt rapid position adjustments. Early-week forecasts typically carry less weight than those issued 24–48 hours before the event, when model confidence peaks.