Lowest temperature in Denver on May 29, 2026?

Prediction market odds on Kalshi reflect real-money consensus from traders pricing in weather models, historical May patterns, and climate data. Analyst forecasts from meteorological services like the National Weather Service typically focus on point estimates and confidence intervals rather than discrete probability distributions. Market odds often incorporate longer-tail risks and tail-event pricing that traditional forecasts may underweight. Comparing Kalshi implied probabilities to NWS extended outlooks can reveal whether traders are pricing in more or less uncertainty than official meteorological guidance suggests for Denver's May 29 low.

On Kalshi, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. On Kalshi, the Lowest temperature in Denver on May 29, 2026 market is structured around discrete temperature bins or ranges, with each outcome trading as a separate contract. Traders buy and sell shares reflecting their belief in which low-temperature band will occur. Prices range from 0 to 100 cents, where higher prices indicate stronger market conviction. Kalshi's order book displays competing bids and asks for each temperature outcome, and the spread between them reflects liquidity and disagreement among participants about Denver's May low.

The market resolves on May 30, 2026, after May 29, 2026 has concluded and official temperature data is available. Resolution is determined by the recorded low temperature in Denver on that date, sourced from authoritative weather stations or climate databases. Once the actual low is confirmed, the corresponding outcome contract settles to 100 cents and all other outcomes settle to zero. Traders holding the winning outcome receive their payout based on the price at which they held their position.

Market prices for Denver's May 29 low will shift as updated seasonal forecasts, atmospheric patterns, and climate indices emerge. Major signals include changes to the jet stream positioning, development of high or low pressure systems expected to influence Colorado in late May, and updates to long-range ensemble models from NOAA and other meteorological centers. Historical May temperature records and anomalies for Denver also inform trader expectations. As May 2026 draws closer, short-range forecasts will become more precise, likely triggering repricing as uncertainty narrows and the market converges toward the actual outcome.