Lowest temperature in Denver on Jun 29, 2026?

On Kalshi, this market is priced through a continuous order-book mechanism where traders submit bids and asks for shares tied to the outcome. On Kalshi, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. Each share represents a claim on the event's resolution, and the midpoint between buy and sell orders reflects the market's consensus probability. As new information arrives—updated seasonal forecasts, climate anomalies, or shifts in trader conviction—the price adjusts in real time. Liquidity and trading volume directly influence how quickly prices move and how tight the bid-ask spread remains.

This market resolves around Jun 30, 2026, once June 29, 2026 has passed and the lowest temperature recorded in Denver that day is verified. The outcome is confirmed against credible public sources, such as the National Weather Service or established meteorological databases, ensuring an objective and transparent settlement. Traders who correctly predicted whether the minimum would exceed 62 degrees receive their payout based on the final verified temperature reading.

Several factors could shift odds significantly before resolution. Long-range climate forecasts updated by NOAA or other meteorological agencies may indicate warmer or cooler-than-normal conditions for late June. El Niño or La Niña patterns, Arctic oscillation shifts, and historical anomalies in Denver's late-spring temperatures all influence trader positioning. As June 2026 approaches, 10-day and extended forecasts will become more precise, likely triggering sharp repricing. Major climate events or unusual atmospheric patterns in the months leading up to the event could also reshape expectations and trading activity in this market.