Lowest temperature in Denver on Jun 16, 2026?

On Kalshi, this market is priced through a continuous order-book mechanism where traders submit bids and asks for shares tied to specific temperature thresholds. On Kalshi, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. Each contract represents a binary outcome—for example, whether the minimum temperature will exceed 57 degrees—and the market price reflects the last matched trade. As new information emerges or trader conviction shifts, the odds adjust in real time. Higher trading volume typically narrows spreads and increases price accuracy, making active markets more reliable indicators of true probability.

This market resolves around Jun 17, 2026, once June 16, 2026 has passed and the actual lowest temperature in Denver is verifiable from credible public sources. The outcome is determined by comparing recorded weather data against the specific temperature thresholds embedded in each contract. Traders who correctly predicted the temperature range receive their winnings, while incorrect positions expire worthless. Resolution typically occurs within hours of the event, allowing quick settlement and payout.

Several factors could shift odds significantly before resolution. Updated seasonal climate forecasts, El Niño or La Niña patterns, and long-range weather models may prompt traders to adjust positions. Breaking news about atmospheric conditions or unexpected cold fronts could trigger sharp price movements. As June 16 approaches, near-term weather forecasts become more reliable and may cause rapid repricing. Major trader entries or exits can also move the market, especially if volume remains modest. Monitoring meteorological updates and tracking order-book depth helps traders anticipate these shifts.