Lowest temperature in Denver on Jun 11, 2026?

On Kalshi, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. On Kalshi, the lowest temperature in Denver on June 11, 2026 is priced as a set of binary or range-based contracts, each representing a specific temperature threshold or band. Traders buy and sell shares at prices between 0 and 100 cents, with the price reflecting the market's collective estimate of that outcome's probability. As new information emerges—weather model updates, seasonal patterns, or atmospheric shifts—traders adjust positions, moving prices up or down. The most actively traded contracts typically cluster around the most likely temperature ranges, while extreme outcomes trade at lower prices, reflecting lower perceived probability.

The market resolves on Jun 12, 2026, after June 11, 2026 has passed and the actual lowest temperature in Denver for that day is recorded. The outcome is determined by official temperature data, typically sourced from a recognized meteorological authority such as NOAA or the National Weather Service station in Denver. Once the official low temperature is confirmed, the contract corresponding to that outcome is marked correct, and all other contracts expire worthless. Traders holding the winning contract receive their payout based on the price at which they held their position.

Several factors could shift market odds for Denver's June 11 low temperature. Major weather pattern changes—such as shifts in jet stream positioning, development of high or low pressure systems, or changes to seasonal climate forecasts—often trigger repricing. Updated numerical weather prediction models, especially those issued 7–14 days before the event, carry significant weight. Historical climate data and long-range outlooks from NOAA's Climate Prediction Center can also influence trader expectations. Real-time atmospheric observations, solar activity trends, and any unusual seasonal anomalies may prompt traders to adjust their positions, moving implied probabilities as new information becomes available.