Lowest temperature in Dallas on Jun 4, 2026?

On Kalshi, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. On Kalshi, the lowest temperature outcome is priced as a binary or range-based contract reflecting trader expectations for Dallas's minimum temperature on that date. Prices move as new weather data, seasonal forecasts, and climate signals emerge. Traders buy shares at lower prices if they believe the actual low will exceed the strike, and sell if they expect it to fall short. The contract price directly translates to implied probability, making it easy to see what the market believes is most likely.

The market resolves on Jun 5, 2026. Resolution is determined by the actual lowest temperature recorded in Dallas on June 4, 2026, according to the official data source specified by the contract terms. Once that temperature is confirmed and published, the outcome is locked in and traders' positions settle accordingly. The resolution process is automated once the official reading becomes available, ensuring a clear and objective close to the event.

Major signals include updated long-range weather forecasts, seasonal climate patterns, and any unusual atmospheric conditions approaching June 2026. Cold fronts, high-pressure systems, or anomalous jet-stream behavior in the weeks leading up to June 4 could shift trader expectations significantly. Historical temperature records and early-summer climate trends for Dallas will also influence pricing. As the event date approaches, short-range meteorological models become more reliable, often triggering sharp repricing. Real-time weather alerts and forecast updates will be the primary drivers of market movement.