Lowest temperature in Dallas on Jun 19, 2026?

Prediction market odds reflect real-money incentives, so traders pricing this market often incorporate meteorological models, historical June patterns, and climate data more dynamically than traditional forecasts. While weather analysts publish seasonal outlooks months in advance, market participants update odds continuously as new atmospheric data arrives. This market aggregates dispersed knowledge from many traders, potentially offering a different perspective than a single analyst's point estimate. Comparing the two can reveal where consensus diverges or where markets are pricing in tail risks that conventional forecasts downplay.

On Kalshi, this market is priced through an order-book mechanism where traders submit bids and asks for shares corresponding to different temperature outcomes. On Kalshi, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. The price of each outcome reflects the probability traders assign to it, with higher prices indicating greater confidence. As new information emerges—updated climate models, seasonal patterns, or real-time weather developments—traders adjust their positions, moving prices up or down. The spread between bid and ask prices reflects market liquidity and uncertainty around the exact low temperature on that date.

This market resolves around Jun 20, 2026, once June 19, 2026 has passed and the day's minimum temperature in Dallas is verifiable from credible public sources. The outcome is determined by the official recorded low for that calendar day, typically reported by the National Weather Service or equivalent meteorological authority. Your position settles based on which temperature range or specific outcome you held shares in at the time of resolution. All open positions are closed and winnings distributed according to the actual observed low.

Major climate pattern shifts, updated seasonal forecasts, and long-range weather models can significantly move prices in this market. El Niño or La Niña developments, changes in jet-stream positioning, and anomalies in sea-surface temperatures all influence June weather across Texas. As the event date approaches, medium-range forecasts become more reliable and can trigger sharp repricing. Additionally, any unusual heat waves or cold snaps in preceding months may shift trader expectations about Dallas's typical June low. Real-time atmospheric data and any revisions to climate indices will keep this market active and responsive.