Lowest temperature in Dallas on Jun 16, 2026?

Prediction market odds reflect real-money bets from traders who have financial incentive to forecast accurately, often incorporating private research and proprietary models. Analyst forecasts—published by meteorologists and climate services—rely on established atmospheric models and historical data. This market typically converges toward analyst consensus as the event date approaches, though traders may price in tail risks or longer-term climate signals that traditional forecasts underweight. Comparing the two reveals where market participants see asymmetric opportunities relative to expert opinion.

On Kalshi, this market is priced through a continuous order-book mechanism where traders buy and sell shares corresponding to different temperature ranges. On Kalshi, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. Each outcome contract reflects the collective belief of all active traders, with prices updating in real time as new orders flow in. The bid-ask spread tightens as more liquidity enters the market, and prices naturally gravitate toward equilibrium as traders arbitrage perceived mispricings against their own forecasts and external weather data.

This market resolves around Jun 17, 2026, once June 16, 2026 has passed and the actual low temperature for Dallas is verifiable from credible public sources. The outcome is determined by the lowest temperature recorded on that date, measured in degrees Fahrenheit according to standard meteorological reporting. Traders holding shares in the correct outcome range receive their payout once the final temperature is confirmed and the market settles automatically.

Major weather pattern shifts, seasonal climate forecasts, and long-range atmospheric models can significantly move this market. El Niño or La Niña conditions, polar vortex behavior, and jet-stream positioning all influence June temperatures in Texas. Real-time updates from the National Weather Service, changes in solar activity, or unexpected climate anomalies may trigger repricing. As June 2026 approaches, near-term weather models become more reliable, typically narrowing the range of outcomes and sharpening trader conviction around the most probable low-temperature scenarios.